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Lincoln Advancing Globex’s Bell Mountain Gold Royalty Project in Nevada


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Safety Shot to buy energy drinks maker Yerbaé Brands

US-based wellness and dietary supplement company Safety Shot has reached a deal to acquire Yerbaé Brands, a plant-based energy drinks company.

The companies signed a definitive arrangement agreement under which all common shares of Yerbaé will be exchanged for an aggregate of 20 million shares of Safety Shot common stock.

This deal represents a basic equity value of $15.2m and an enterprise value of $19.7m, respectively, according to a statement.

Safety Shot shareholders will own approximately 75.8% of the combined business, while former Yerbaé shareholders will hold 24.2%.

Subject to necessary conditions and approvals, the transaction is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025.

Founded in 2017 by Todd and Karrie Gibson, Yerbaé specialises in energy drinks made from plant-based ingredients.

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In its 2023 fiscal year, the energy drinks maker generated approximately $12m in revenue.

Safety Shot sells a range of 4oz “alcohol reducer” shots which claim to be able to lower blood alcohol and reduce the negative impact of alcoholic drinks on the body. Its drinks also come in a stick pack format.

John Gulyas, Safety Shot chairman, anticipates that the acquisition of Yerbaé will serve as a “significant revenue catalyst” for the company, “on top of an expected revenue growth rate of 50% expected in Q4, versus Q3”.

Safety Shot CEO Jarrett Boon added that the deal is “bringing together the best of both worlds – Safety Shot’s expertise in wellness solutions and Yerbaé’s strength in plant-based beverages – to create a company with significant potential.”

The proposed agreement is expected to generate “significant cost synergies”, according to the statement, primarily through efficiencies in general and administrative expenses and the supply chain.

The business plans to leverage Yerbaé’s “strong” distribution network to enhance its market visibility.

The acquisition is also expected to “enhance” Safety Shot’ visibility and growth trajectory in the US and Canada.

Upon the deal closing, Safety Shot’s leadership team will remain in place while Yerbaé’s team will assume secondary management roles.

Shares of Yerbaé will also be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture (TSXV).

Yerbaé CEO Todd Gibson said: “We believe that the transaction will provide us with access to new distribution channels, expanded marketing capabilities, and valuable synergies that will look to benefit both brands.”

Speaking to Just Drinks in September 2023, co-founder Todd Gibson said it planned to build up Yerbaé Brands with the idea of possibly selling it to a larger business.

At the time, he said the “very clear plan is to build this business for it to be an acquirable business by a reputable acquirer”.

He said: “There are nine different major companies, major potential acquirers that are out there. And none of them have a yerba-maté in their portfolio right now. That gives us an opportunity to stand out in that crowd.”


Posthaste: How the stock market can tank when you least expect it

You don’t always need a recession to send stocks into a tailspin

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The last time the S&P 500 posted back-to-back annual returns above 20 per cent was in the 1990s, and this raises the question — how long will it last?

Recession is the most common driver of significant losses in the stock market; you only have to look as far back as 2020 and 2008 to see that. But today with no signs of a slowdown on the horizon and leading indicators looking up, the good times should just keep rolling, right?

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Not necessarily, says a report from Deutsche Bank Research. There are times when markets have toppled into a serious decline without a recession, and though they are “pretty infrequent,” their researchers found eight examples in the past 75 years that reveal common themes.

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Deutsche Bank Research

Sometimes it doesn’t take a recession, it just takes the fear of a recession.

That’s what happened in 2022, when the Federal Reserve began to clamp down on soaring inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes. Growth slowed as well, with GDP in the United States dropping from 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 1.3 per cent a year later.

A U.S. recession became the consensus forecast among economists and that’s all it took. The S&P 500 fell by 25 per cent from peak to trough.

“Ultimately, this episode is a good example of equities selling off based on fears of a recession, rather than the reality of one,” said Henry Allen, Deutsche Bank macro strategist.

Now let’s travel back to Black Monday in 1987 when the S&P 500 fell 20 per cent in one day. The carnage on Oct. 19 was part of broader decline which saw the index lose 33 per cent in less than four months, said Deutsche.

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Many of the factors behind that fall exist today and one of the big ones was concern about high valuations. When it peaked in August, 1987 the S&P 500 was up 39 per cent year over year.

Today, as Noah Solomon points out in his column for the Financial Post, the S&P 500 is at its highest multiple in the postwar era, except for the tech bubble in the late 1990s.

“The four largest debacles in the history of modern markets were all preceded by peak valuations,” says Solomon.

In 1987, there were also fears about trade and budget deficits, both on the minds of investors today as president-elect Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House.

The one component that existed then and not now was a hawkish Fed.

One of the biggest falls outside of a recession was in 1961, when the S&P 500 shed 28 per cent.  Again there were growing concerns about extended valuations with the CAPE ratio hitting its highest level since 1937. Growth was slowing, but was far from contracting.

Deutsche says two themes emerge from its examples: Slowing growth raises fears of recession, even if there isn’t one, and the Fed tightens monetary policy.

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“So if growth remains strong and the Fed don’t start hiking rates again, it’s not implausible that elevated valuations continue for some time,” wrote Allen.

“But history demonstrates that if signs of a slowdown do emerge or rate hikes move back on the table, then it’s possible for equities to experience a notable decline, even without a recession.”


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National Bank of Canada

Rarely does trade data ignite such a reaction. News this week that Canada’s trade surplus with the United States had widened to $8.2 billion sent president-elect Donald Trump into another tariff tirade.

“We don’t need anything they have,” Trump said of Canada on Tuesday, characterizing the trade deficit as a subsidy. “We have more than they have.”

Canada’s exports to America rose 6.8 per cent in November, and imports increased 4.1 per cent. Our southern neighbour is by far our largest trading partner, accounting for 76 per cent of exports and 64 per cent of imports.

Oil, gas and metals mainly drove gains in November. Copper ore shipments surged almost 39 per cent and exports of gold/silver/platinum soared 21 per cent to an all-time high of $4.9 billion, said National Bank of Canada.

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  • U.S. markets will be closed today to observe a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.
  • Today’s Data: United States wholesale trade
  • Earnings: Aritzia Inc.

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Financial Post


Career change is now a defining feature of modern working life, with 42 per cent of Canadians contemplating changing jobs. But before you take the plunge, there are financial implications you need to consider. Lynn MacNeil outlines some practical steps to take so that your career transition aligns with your long-term financial goals. Read more


Calling Canadian families with younger kids or teens: Whether it’s budgeting, spending, investing, paying off debt, or just paying the bills, does your family have any financial resolutions for the coming year? Let us know at wealth@postmedia.com.


McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

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Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.


Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.


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    Millennials overtake baby boomers on debt for the first time

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    Canada’s congestion ‘crisis’ is costing billions

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Osisko Development Announces Senior Management Update


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Australian share market on track for first loss of 2025

Derek RoseAAP
Every sector of the ASX was in the red following the release of retail sales data. (James Gourley/AAP PHOTOS)
Camera IconEvery sector of the ASX was in the red following the release of retail sales data. (James Gourley/AAP PHOTOS) Credit: AAP

The Australia share market is on track for its first day of losses in the new year, snapping a five-day winning streak.

Around midday AEDT on Thursday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 49.9 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 8,300.4, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 49.9 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 8,549.5.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month released overnight didn’t shed much new light on the US central bank’s thinking.

Closer to home, the Australian Bureau of Statistics disclosed that retail sales rose 0.8 per cent in November, up from 0.5 per cent in October, but beneath consensus expectations of a 1.0 per cent jump.

Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia, said the growing popularity of Black Friday sales had made it difficult to get a read on the underlying strength of consumption from the data, as the rise in November would likely be offset by a contraction in December.

But the 1.5 per cent rise at cafes and restaurants did suggest a lift in spending outside Black Friday sales, and overall this week’s data showed inflation was easing while the labour market remained tight and consumption appeared solid, Mr Udy said.

“This provides a mixed picture for the RBA in February, but we still expect the bank will hold off cutting rates until at least May,” he said.

Every sector of the ASX was in the red at midday, with energy the biggest loser, dropping 1.4 per cent as Brent crude fell to a six-day low of $US75.73 a barrel on a buildup of inventories.

Woodside was down 1.4 per cent, Santos had slipped 1.3 per cent and Whitehaven Coal had fallen 1.8 per cent.

In the mining sector, Westgold had fallen 11.4 per cent to $2.59, after the goldminer reported a lift in production following its takeover of Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Karora Resources.

Other goldminers were mostly higher as the precious metal changed hands for $US2,659 an ounce, with Northern Star up 3.4 per cent and Newmont advancing 2.7 per cent.

Elsewhere in the sector, BHP was down 1.0 per cent, Rio Tinto had added 0.2 per cent and Fortescue had climbed 0.4 per cent.

Star Entertainment Group had plunged 24.4 per cent to an all-time low of 14.75 cents after the casino operator disclosed it had just $79 million left in available cash after burning through $107 million in the past three months.

All of the big four banks were lower, with CBA down 1.0 per cent, ANZ falling 0.9 per cent, Westpac slipping 0.4 per cent and NAB dipping 0.3 per cent. But Macquarie had gained 1.5 per cent.

The Australian dollar had dropped to a one-week low against the greenback, buying 62.02 US cents, from 62.31 US cents at close of business on Wednesday.

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Trudeau Coasted on Progressive Vibes, But Served the Interests of Corporations

Legislative action has ground to a halt in the Canadian Parliament, which has suspended its work until March. The legislative stop is now the Liberal Party’s de facto deadline for selecting a leader to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced on Monday that he will resign as soon as his replacement has been chosen.

But despite the political turmoil, Canada’s wealthy are still having a field day. Corporate earnings are at record highs. In 2022, profits made in Canada were CAD$275 billion higher than they were in 2019. Profits in 2022 were the highest they have ever been in Canada’s existence. And while the jury is still out for where 2024 will land, Canada’s main stock exchange, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was 18 percent higher than last year and also reached record high levels at various points in the year.

Canada’s most important sectors have made huge financial gains since 2015, when Trudeau took office. Bank profits have trended higher. (For example, the Royal Bank’s 2023 profits were record-breaking, and at $16.24 billion, 62.4 percent higher than in 2015.) Oil and gas moved from a net income of $11.8 billion in 2014 to $63.1 billion in 2022 and benefit from a new, publicly funded pipeline that cost Canadians more than $34 billion to build. Insurance companies’ profits are breaking records. Profits in telecommunications hit a record high in 2022. You get the idea.

And CEOs are rolling in it. In 2024, Canada’s 100 top paid CEOs made $13.2 million, on average. It’s the third highest payout of all time — after 2021 and 2022.

Of course, there’s a flip side to this wealth accumulation: record-breaking numbers of visits to food banks; a housing crisis that exists in every single town and city across Canada (a crisis that, in the winter especially, leads to death and amputation); record-breaking income inequality. The Canada of 2025 is in a delicate, precarious state. People are on thin ice.

While we can’t give credit to or blame any single politician for where we find ourselves today, there’s no question that the policies of the federal government play an important role in reducing or exacerbating income inequality. The proof is in the pudding: Justin Trudeau has overwhelmingly served the interests of corporations and their leaders.

And so, when a narrative emerged from corporate media and analysts that Trudeau had to go because he had moved too far to the left, I did a spit take: What in the universe are they talking about?

The members of Parliament (MPs) who made this claim mostly spoke under a cloak of anonymity. Global News’ David Akin reported, “Almost all of the MPs Global News spoke to believe Trudeau has moved the party too far to the left and that shift has played a key role in the decline of the Liberals.” Akin didn’t say who or explain how these MPs were defining “the left.”

How can it be that a prime minister whose tenure saw record-breaking corporate performance paired with widening social inequality is also “too far to the left”? What kind of left-wing doctrine supports extreme income inequality and a tax structure that has failed to redistribute profits?

No one could reasonably believe that Trudeau’s economic policy was too far to the left. What they’re really saying is that Trudeau’s vibes were too far to the left. From the moment he took office, Trudeau draped himself in the language of the left but then never put that language into any useful action. Remember his famous mic drop moment when, after a journalist asked him why his cabinet had an equal number of women and men, he declared, “because it’s 2015”? Many concluded that Trudeau’s reply signaled that he was a feminist, unlike the previous prime minister, who flirted with anti-abortion activists and who would probably shrivel up and die if he found himself the lone man in a room full of trans-inclusive radical feminists.

But Trudeau’s policies weren’t even particularly feminist. And when his first justice minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould resigned, his feminist bona fides were called into question. Wilson-Raybould’s account of their confrontation painted a downright unfeminist portrait of the man.

One can coast on vibes for a bit, but vibes are not enough to support political regimes. From marching in Pride parades to taking a knee among Black Lives Matter activists, so much of Trudeau’s left-wing politics were vibes, and many of us could see through them.

In fact, in nine years, his government only accomplished one major progressive victory: the Canada Child Benefit. This benefit instantly lifted hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty. It offers the lowest-income Canadians $648.91 per month for every child under 6 years old. However, combined with broader social forces, even this benefit isn’t enough: Child poverty has been on the rise in the post-pandemic period.

Otherwise, Trudeau’s biggest promises were far more bluster than they were helpful. The Liberals’ pharmacare plan only covers two drugs at the moment and hasn’t been put into force through provincial agreements. Their new dental benefit isn’t yet fully operational, but when it is, it will only help low-income Canadians, many of whom won’t have the resources or access necessary to benefit from it. Universal daycare is great, if you’re lucky to be at a daycare that’s part of the program (and most aren’t) and still, it’s expensive.

A change to the tax code to subject more profits to tax hasn’t yet passed a vote in the House of Commons. (And if it doesn’t get passed before the election is called, it will die.) And promises to change the electoral system or create real changes within the housing market have been swept under the carpet.

Even pandemic-era benefits, arguably the most significant financial supports that the Trudeau government created (indeed, they built the most expensive social program in the history of Canada virtually overnight), collapsed after it was clear that the program turned into a mass transfer of public money to private coffers, with large businesses being the principal winners. The poorest Canadians received nothing, the Canadians who made more than $5,000 annually and lost a salary due to the pandemic received a monthly benefit that hundreds of thousands were forced to pay back, and small businesses who couldn’t pay back their business loans were thrown into chaos as they tried.

The cynicism around these programs was the quiet fuel that simmered the campaign that led to Trudeau’s demise. All this, while profitable companies like telecoms, and even some long-term care facilities that managed waves of mass death in their facilities, were each handed tens of millions of dollars in pandemic aid, no questions asked.

Half-measures have been the undoing of Trudeau’s popularity. Indeed, the vibes have run out, and people are realizing that their government isn’t exactly interested in helping them. And with few options on offer for help, many Canadians have parked their support with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, despite the Conservatives’ record of failure in reducing poverty or helping average people.

Mainstream media has pushed out most progressive journalists and commentators. This has created a world where what is or isn’t left-wing is defined by the right, and it’s usually a caricature of what left-wing politics really are.

The fact that Trudeau has occupied the place that journalists call “progressive” has left no space for Canadians to have a serious and credible conversation about progressive politics. Instead, mainstream journalists boost members of Parliament who look at the world, look at their party’s record and look at their leader and conclude: oh, the problem is that he was too left-wing.

Of course, there’s no truth in that. But what does truth matter, when you’re priming the next person to be just as friendly to the corporate world as the last one was?

TSX-listed Pambili bullish on Zim gold assets

TSX-listed Pambili bullish on Zim gold assets


Oliver Kazunga

Senior Business Reporter

Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Pambili Natural Resources Corporation has expressed optimism regarding its option to acquire the London Wall group of gold mines and claims in Zimbabwe.

Last year, the mining group announced that it had signed a 12-month agreement with Long Strike Investments to acquire 21 gold assets in Gwanda, Matabeleland South Province.

In its latest update, the company, which also owns Golden Valley Mine in Bulawayo, suggested that historical success in the region indicates strong potential for the acquisition.

“If the past is indeed prologue, then Pambili Natural Resources Corporation’s option agreement to acquire the London Wall group of gold mines and claims in Zimbabwe appears very promising,” it said.

“Not only does the option include two previously producing gold mines in London Wall and New Jessie — the claims are located on three interpreted major regional gold-bearing geological structures.”

During the 12-month option agreement with Long Strike, potentially extendable to 24 months, Pambili will retain 95 percent of any gross income generated from the claims and mines.

The agreement grants Pambili the unencumbered right to mine and develop the assets.

Pambili chief executive Mr Jon Harris said while historical production data still requires independent verification, the reported figures align with previous production records.

He expressed excitement about the opportunity to confirm the project’s potential.

Pambili said, citing a report by Long Strike’s technical team, gold mineralisation within the intended acquisition claims is controlled by three major regional geological structures.

The structures converge at the 1,3-kilometre-deep Jessie Mine, situated outside the claims area’s southeastern boundary.

During the option agreement term, Pambili is required to conduct extensive due diligence and exploration of the claims.

If the mining group exercises the option, the total acquisition cost for the mines and claims will be US$1 million.

The amount would be mobilised through a combination of cash and Pambili shares.

“The subsequent share purchase agreement will be subject to approval of the Toronto Venture Exchange, and any Pambili shares issued to complete the potential acquisition will be subject to statutory four-month-and-one-day hold,” it said.

Last year, the country achieved a record-high gold production of 36,5 tonnes, surpassing the annual target by 21,3 percent.

Zimbabwe’s gold exports are poised for significant growth, with projections of US$4 billion in annual revenue starting this year.

The surge is expected to be driven by a combination of factors, including new investments in the gold sub-sector, the reopening of previously closed mines, and expansion projects at existing operations.

Emera Incorporated Announces Conversion Privilege of Cumulative Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series F

HALIFAX, Nova Scotia–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Jan 8, 2025–

Emera Incorporated (“Emera” or the “Company”) (TSX: EMA) announced today that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of the currently outstanding Cumulative Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series F of the Company (the “Series F Shares”) on February 15, 2025. There are currently 8,000,000 Series F Shares outstanding.

Subject to certain conditions set out in the prospectus supplement of the Company dated June 2, 2014, to the short form base shelf prospectus dated May 2, 2013, relating to the issuance of the Series F Shares (collectively, the “Prospectus”), the holders of the Series F Shares have the right, at their option, to convert all or any of their Series F Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series G of the Company (the “Series G Shares”) on February 15, 2025 (the “Conversion Date”).

On such date, holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series F Shares into Series G Shares will continue to hold their Series F Shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the following:

  1. if the Company determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series G Shares outstanding on the Conversion Date, then holders of Series F Shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series G Shares, and
  2. alternatively, if the Company determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series F Shares on the Conversion Date, then all remaining Series F Shares will automatically be converted into Series G Shares on a one-for-one basis on the Conversion Date.

In either case, Emera will give written notice to that effect to holders of Series F Shares at least seven days prior to the Conversion Date, subject to the terms set out in the Prospectus.

The dividend rate applicable for the Series F Shares for the five-year period commencing on February 15, 2025 and ending on (and inclusive of) February 14, 2030, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series G Shares for the 3-month period commencing on February 15, 2025 and ending on (and inclusive of) May 14, 2025, will be determined on January 16, 2025 and notice of such dividend rates shall be provided to the holders of the Series F Shares on that day.

Holders of Series F Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right during the conversion period, which runs from January 16, 2025 until 5:00 p.m. (EST) on January 31, 2025. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid. As such, it is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide their broker or other nominee with adequate time to complete the necessary steps.

Holders of Series F Shares who do not provide notice or communicate with their broker or other nominee by the deadline will retain their Series F Shares and receive the new annual fixed dividend rate applicable to the Series F Shares, subject to the conditions stated above. Holders of Series F Shares will have the opportunity to convert their shares again on February 15, 2030 and every five years thereafter as long as the shares remain outstanding. For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with, an investment in Series F Shares and Series G Shares, please see the Company’s Prospectus, which is available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

Forward Looking Information

This news release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws with respect to Emera, the Series F Shares and the Series G Shares. By its nature, forward-looking information requires Emera to make assumptions and is subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect Emera management’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available to Emera management. There is a risk that predictions, forecasts, conclusions and projections that constitute forward-looking information will not prove to be accurate, that Emera’s assumptions may not be correct and that actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking information. Additional detailed information about these assumptions, risks and uncertainties is included in Emera’s securities regulatory filings, including under the heading “Enterprise Risk and Risk Management” in Emera’s annual Management’s Discussion and Analysis, and under the heading “Principal Financial Risks and Uncertainties” in the notes to Emera’s annual and interim financial statements, which can be found on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

About Emera

Emera (TSX: EMA) is a leading North American provider of energy services headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia, with investments in regulated electric and natural gas utilities, and related businesses and assets. The Emera family of companies delivers safe, reliable energy to approximately 2.5 million customers in Canada, the United States and the Caribbean. Our team of 7,300 employees is committed to our purpose of energizing modern life and delivering a cleaner energy future for all. Emera’s common and preferred shares are listed and trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Additional information can be accessed at www.emera.com or www.sedarplus.ca.

View source version on businesswire.com:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250108160176/en/

CONTACT: Emera Inc.

Investor Relations

Dave Bezanson, VP, Investor Relations & Pensions

902-474-2126

dave.bezanson@emera.comMedia

Dina Bartolacci Seely

902-222-2683

media@emera.com

KEYWORD: NORTH AMERICA CANADA

INDUSTRY KEYWORD: ENERGY UTILITIES OIL/GAS

SOURCE: Emera Inc.

Copyright Business Wire 2025.

PUB: 01/08/2025 01:31 PM/DISC: 01/08/2025 01:30 PM

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250108160176/en

Insider Threat: Tackling the Complex Challenges of the Enemy Within

The insider threat is a simple term for a mammoth and complex problem. It ranges from national security through theft of corporate intellectual property to malicious harm and accidental incompetence. 

Here we concentrate on the malicious insider threat. This involves foreign agents, legitimate but malcontent staff, criminally-bribed employees, and more. Just as these threats are diverse, so are the possible solutions.

National security

National security can suffer from both malcontents and foreign agents. Edward Snowden is the iconic example of a malcontent insider leaking documents that harmed national security. He is now a Russian citizen and charged in the US with offenses against the Espionage Act. He was probably not a traditional spy or foreign agent but a malcontent insider. He was apparently transiting Russia on his way to Cuba / Ecuador when he was marooned at Moscow airport after the US revoked his passport – and was allowed to stay because he could not leave (and it gave Russia propaganda opportunities).

His motivation seems to have been a belief that secret global NSA (and GCHQ) surveillance practices should not remain secret. He stole thousands of classified documents and passed them to journalists. This motivation is partially vindicated by the reaction of Europe – it led to the formulation and enactment of GDPR, which has become the underlying blueprint for many global privacy regulations.

However, Snowden’s motivation is irrelevant here: the NSA failed to recognize and prevent the insider threat posed by a contractor working for the NSA.

Monetary theft

On August 8, 2024, the Justice Department disclosed its disruption of a North Korean IT worker fraud scheme. It announced the arrest of a Nashville, Tennessee man (Matthew Knoot) for facilitating the employment of NK IT workers (probably physically located in China) to work remotely for US firms. The firms thought they were remotely employing a US citizen, and sent him (actually Knoot) a company laptop. Knoot installed RDPs and allowed the NK personnel to work remotely. 

The Justice Department announcement suggests the purpose is primarily financial, with the workers’ pay being transferred to North Korea and siphoned into the nation’s weapons program. A subsequent report from Mandiant shows this example is only part of a large problem. 

“We have observed the operators leverage front companies to disguise their true identities; additionally, U.S. government indictments show that non-North Korean individuals, known as ‘facilitators’, play a crucial role in enabling these IT workers in their efforts to seek and maintain employment,” explains Mandiant. “These individuals provide essential services that include, but are not limited to, laundering money and/or cryptocurrency, receiving and hosting company laptops at their residences, using stolen identities for employment verification, and accessing international financial systems.”

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The report points to an earlier example of one facilitator impacting more than 300 US companies and earning at least $6.8 million – most of it probably fueling NK weapons development.

Mandiant defines the motives behind this fraudulent employment as being ‘financial gain’ and maintaining long term access ‘for potential future financial exploitation’. It also notes, but hasn’t definitively observed, the possibility of espionage or disruptive activity.

KnowBe4 is an example victim of a fake hiring via a facilitator. The firm dispatched a company workstation. But it immediately detected anomalous activity which included “various actions to manipulate session history files, transfer potentially harmful files, and execute unauthorized software.” Within 25 minutes of the first alert, KnowBe4 contained the device. “No access was gained or compromised on KnowBe4 systems,” confirmed chief executive Stu Sjouwerman.

Commercial IP theft

The demise of Nortel in 2009, a company that had once accounted for more than one-third of the valuation of all the companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, is a complex issue. Nevertheless, there is a correlation with its downfall and the rise of China’s Huawei selling similar but cheaper products. According to Brian Shields, Nortel had been hacked.

This hack was also complex, ostensibly involving access to executive email accounts (traditional hacking) and the employment of Chinese PhD students (insiders). A Global News report published on August 25, 2020, states an unnamed expert commenting on Nortel’s “usage of Chinese PhD students hired by Nortel to steal research”. 

The report continues, “Many of these allegations are consistent with a February 2020 U.S. Department of Justice indictment that alleges Huawei was involved in a decades-long conspiracy to steal technology from numerous victim companies in efforts to grow its market share, the expert said.”

It is impossible to verify all these suggestions, but the alleged activity is consistent with adversarial nations using insiders to effect IP theft for economic gain. These days, this is potentially easier to achieve via cyberattacks, but the apparent ease by which North Korean IT workers can infiltrate important and large corporations would suggest that it continues.

However, theft of intellectual property for commercial gain is not limited to international activity. In 2004, the Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss twins sued Mark Zuckerberg accusing him of fraud, copyright infringement and misappropriation of trade secrets after working on their ConnectU social networking project, to help develop Facebook. Zuckerberg denied the accusations, but nevertheless reportedly (by ComputerWorld) agreed to pay the twins $65 million in 2008.

This agreement was meant to be confidential and was not confirmed. Nevertheless, it provides insight into the lucrative potential of taking IP from one employer to another. We can assume it is not an uncommon occurrence, and most cases are settled quietly out of court. In some instances, it will be for direct monetary gain, but in other cases it will be an act of revenge over believed mistreatment by the employer.

The motivations for malicious or potentially malicious activity are various. Sometimes the precise motivation isn’t clear. On October 2, 2024, Swedish TV4 revealed that an employee with ‘a central and safety-sensitive role as a technical expert at the Swedish nuclear technology company’ Studsvik simultaneously worked with the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front. That’s a red flag in more than one sense of the term.

There are only two methods for preventing intentional harm from malicious insiders: don’t employ people likely to cause harm; or detect and prevent their bad intent before harm can be done while they are employed. The first tool is background checking, while the second is becoming focused on sentiment analysis (aka, but less socially acceptable, ‘psycholinguistic analysis’) together with old-fashioned network anomaly detection. Neither are foolproof, and both need to be implemented as part of a wider employment process.

Background checking before employment

There are many specialist background checking firms. These companies collect data from as many public sources as possible and can, for example, rapidly determine whether a US candidate has a criminal history. Background checks through third party specialist firms can provide valuable information that can aid employment choices.

But they should not be used alone. A US firm would have difficulty in collecting the personal history of an EU resident applying for a remote position. And it would be almost impossible to detect a foreign identity that has been constructed via the full resources of an adversarial foreign nation. AI can be used to create a fictional character or alter the appearance of an existing character. False but corroborating social media accounts can be created to provide background. Full employment histories and personal references can be generated from university to jobs – all in or from foreign firms that cannot be confirmed. US firms would have difficulty in verifying such candidates. And all of this will become easier with rapidly improving gen-AI until even criminal gangs will be able to create false identities for real people.

Third-party background checking can only go so far. It must be supported by old fashioned and experienced interview techniques. Omri Weinberg, co-founder and CRO at DoControl, explains his methodology “We’re primarily concerned with two types of bad actors. First, there are those looking to use the company’s data for nefarious purposes. These individuals typically have the skills to do the job and then some – they’re often overqualified. They pose a severe threat because they can potentially access and exploit sensitive data or systems.”

Omri Weinberg
Omri Weinberg, co-founder and CRO at DoControl

The second type includes those who oversell their skills and are actually under or way underqualified. “While they might not have malicious intent, they can still cause significant damage through incompetence or by introducing vulnerabilities due to their lack of expertise. For the overqualified potential bad actors, we’re wary of candidates whose skills far exceed the role’s requirements without a clear explanation. For the underqualified group, we look for discrepancies between claimed skills and actual experience or knowledge during interviews.”

This means it is important to probe the candidate during the interview to gauge the true skill level of the candidate. “it’s essential that the person evaluating the hire has the technical expertise to make these determinations,” he added.

Stephen Kowski, Field CTO at SlashNext, also uses in-house and third party screening for new hires. “Thorough background checks are always conducted for all potential hires,” he explained. “A combination of in-house vetting and specialized third-party agencies is used to ensure comprehensive screening. This multi-layered approach helps identify potential risks and verify credentials more effectively.”

He notes the additional complexities of recruiting remote foreign workers. “Data protection regulations like GDPR can complicate cross-border background checks. Some countries have strict laws limiting the types of information that can be collected or shared about individuals. Navigating these legal complexities requires careful consideration and often specialized legal expertise.”

Stephen Kowski, Field CTO at SlashNext
Stephen Kowski, Field CTO at SlashNext

In the final analysis, he concludes: “If any doubts persist or critical information cannot be verified, the safer option would be to pass on the candidate.”

We have no way of knowing how often third party background checks and/or interview techniques succeed in screening out potentially harmful recruitment; but we do know it isn’t always successful. Just as risk management teaches us to expect a malicious compromise and have security layers in place to provide rapid response, so must we learn how to detect and respond to a malicious (or careless) insider who is already employed.

Detection during employment

The two ways to detect an employee who has dubious intent are through what they do and what they think. The former has similarities to detecting an intrusion; that is, network anomaly detection. Note that KnowBe4 detected a North Korean remote employee ‘through various actions to manipulate session history files, transfer potentially harmful files, and execute unauthorized software’. But also note, if the employee has been with the company for a long time, and has reached a senior position, he or she may be better able to disguise or hide misbehavior.

The second method is through monitoring the mood of individuals – effectively ‘sentiment’ analysis that can come from the science of psycholinguistic analysis. This may appear intrusive when conducted by technology, but is little different to leaders monitoring their staff for signs of burnout so they can help the employee. Why not do the same to help the company through technology?

The process is known as ‘sentiment analysis’. We do it automatically and often subconsciously whenever we talk to someone – we want / need to know the mood of that person. Moods evolve rapidly, but the descent into discontent evolves gradually and is often revealed slowly through written communication.

Government perceptions

EO13587, issued by President Obama, established a government insider threat program run by the National Insider Threat Task Force (NITTF). The purpose is to protect classified information from unauthorized disclosure (think Snowden and Chelsea Manning), but the process is applicable to all industries. In its own words, “The primary mission of the NITTF is to develop a government-wide insider threat program for deterring, detecting, and mitigating insider threats.”

NITTF is run from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It is not a sentiment analysis tool, but is packed with advice on how to recognize evolving insider threats.

Academic perceptions

The Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute gave a presentation discussing their work on text analytics to uncover insider threats. It’s a hugely complex area. The technology exists to provide sentiment analysis, but it must be used with care. The presenters stress the need that any text analysis used to discover sentiment must be part of an organization-wide approach including HR and Legal. Privacy legislation and norms must be considered. If it appears that an organization is surreptitiously spying on its employees, that will automatically generate bad sentiment and be counterproductive.

“These are folks we’ve already entered into trust relationships with, and in the average case, we want to support, protect these folks, support folks who are experiencing and demonstrating concerning behaviors and activity that, in our research, we’ve seen precede the harmful acts that malicious insiders have gone on to carry out against the organization,” say the presenters. The primary purpose of sentiment analysis should not be to catch insiders, but to prevent the cause of insider threats.

The future

We will see a rapid advance in the technologies and tools that can be used to this end through the continuing advances of gen-AI. In January 2024, Sean Trott published a paper showing that GPT-4 can be used to elicit judgments for various psycholinguistic norms.

The science involved is already being used – primarily to discover sentiment in social media. As the individual insider threat continues to grow, it is only natural that commercial organizations will develop tools that uncover sentiment within specific companies. The biggest constraints are privacy laws – but laws are flexible. They have been repeatedly bent to allow data scraping by, for example, OpenAI. The time will come when the full power of gen-AI and machine learning can be applied – must be applied – to internal employee sentiment analysis.

When that time comes, companies will be well-advised to plan carefully and tread softly.

Related: Mandiant Offers Clues to Spotting North Korean Fake IT Workers

Related: Triple Threat: Insecure Economy, Cybercrime Recruitment and Insider Threats

Related: Most NASA Systems at Risk From Insider Threats: Audit

Related: New CISA Tool Helps Organizations Assess Insider Threat Risks

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