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Monday, April 14, 2025
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TORONTO: Canada’s main stock index rose on Friday as higher commodity prices boosted resource shares and investors weighed the potential for recent financial market volatility brought on by a global trade war to subside.
Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 572.93 points, or 2.5%, at 23,587.80. For the week, the TSX was up 1.7% after some wild swings, which included a near eight-month low on Tuesday.
Wall Street also notched gains on Friday as big banks kicked off first-quarter earnings season.
“It’s a positive outcome to what has been a very chaotic week as far as announcements go, but I think investors will take the positives wherever they can get them,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
“I am reluctant to say that the volatility is over, but I think that the worst of the volatility is likely behind us.”
The materials group, which includes fertilizer companies and metal mining shares, rose 4.8% as copper prices jumped and gold climbed above $3,200 per ounce for the first time.
The precious metal has benefited from safe-haven demand as well as recent sharp declines for the US dollar.
The Canadian dollar strengthened to a five-month high against its US counterpart as the erratic nature of US trade policy weighed on the greenback and ahead of a potential pause in the Bank of Canada’s interest rate-cutting campaign at a policy decision on Wednesday.
The price of oil also rose, settling 2.4% higher at $61.50 a barrel. Energy added 3.3% and heavily weighted financials ended 2% higher.
All 10 major sectors notched advances, but the gain for real estate was marginal as the recent rout in the US bond market helped drive up Canada’s long-term borrowing costs. The Canadian 10-year yield touched a 2-1/2-month high at 3.309%.
Canada’s primary stock exchange posted a record high in January 2025, but has lost all gains since. The negative market sentiment persists in April due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariff threats. Fortunately, some TSX stocks are well-positioned to outperform despite a bear market.
Assuming I have $300 free cash today, I’d invest it in a soon-to-be high growth stock. Besides reporting record results in Q1 fiscal 2025, Blackline Safety (TSX:BLN) achieved the “Rule of 40.” In the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) industry, it means the sum of a company’s annual revenue growth rate and profit margin is 40% or higher. It also indicates a balance between growth and profitability.
Calgary-based Blackline Safety operates in the safety technology industry. The $548 million SaaS company provides critical safety solutions in homes and workplaces. It caters to businesses across the oil and gas, manufacturing, utilities, chemical processing, emergency response, and other industries.
The global industrial safety market is forecasted to grow from US$7.7 billion in 2025 to US$ 10.6 billion by 2030 (a 6.5% compound annual growth rate). According to Markets and Markets Research, the high demand for reliable safety systems to protect personnel and assets, as well as stringent safety regulations, will drive growth.
Blackline Safety has become a trusted partner of prominent companies in enhancing the safety of workers in various environments. Furthermore, the growing acceptance of workplace safety standards in emerging economies and the rising use of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) technologies creates significant opportunities.
In the three months ending January 31, 2025, Blackline’s total revenue (product and service) grew 43% to $17.8 million compared to Q1 fiscal 2024. The net loss thinned 80% year-over-year to $1.1 million. Its CEO and Chairman, Cody Slater, said it was another record-breaking quarter.
The feat was the 32nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. Slater credits the robust market adoption of Blackline’s industry-transforming connected safety solutions for the impressive results to start fiscal 2025. “Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached a record $70.9 million, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase and highlighting the strength of our Hardware-Enabled SaaS business model,” he added.
Likewise, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the same quarter reached $2.1 million following the positive EBITDAs in Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2024. The strong global customer demand reinforced Blackline’s ability to scale profitably and execute its long-term strategic vision.
Slater further said, “Blackline Safety achieved the Rule of 40 metric in Q1, the gold standard for SaaS companies, with revenue growth plus adjusted EBITDA margin reaching 47. We see this as a strong milestone for the Company and a true validation of our business model.”
Management acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, although the potential impact on revenue and earnings is generally short-term. Blackline has adequate inventory to fulfill or meet orders, including those of U.S. customers.
Blackline Safety trades at $6.52 per share (-4.6% year-to-date) and carries a buy rating from market analysts. Their 12-month price target for BLS stock is between $8.86 (average) and $10 (high). The potential return on a $300 investment in one year could be from 35.9% to 53.4%. Over the long term, Blackline expects further customer growth and higher market share.
RHINELANDER, Wis. (WJFW) – There have been no active sulfide mines in Wisconsin for decades. But a mining moratorium was repealed by Governor Scott Walker in 2017. Since then, there has been some exploratory drilling, and the DNR recently approved another mineral exploration. The Canadian mining company GreenLight Metals was recently cleared for drilling in Taylor County’s Bend Deposit, which is believed to contain around 4 million tons of gold and copper. While many environmental advocates say this poses a danger to drinking water in the area, one member of their board of directors says this could be a major step in the United States becoming more self-dependent in its acquisitions of essential minerals.
“We are very confident that we can conduct exploration activities and design a mine project that will be protective of the environment,” said Steve Donahue, a Greenlight board member.
GreenLight Metals is set to go public on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday and are excited about how going public can speed up exploratory drilling in Taylor County. Environmental advocates say that mining of sulfide ores, especially copper, can pollute rivers and groundwater for hundreds of years. Donahue, however says things like the Clean Air and Water Acts, along with Wisconsin’s strict mining laws, allow for two things to be achieved in this state and country.
“Protect the environment and responsibly develop our natural resources,” Donahue said. “Which we need to do so we’re not so beholden to adversarial countries for supplies of things like copper and other critical elements that we need for our economic life.”
Environmentalists worry that mining copper ore can generate acidity that could leach onto rain water. But Donahue says the mining regulations in Wisconsin won’t allow for that to happen.
“It’s true that developing these types of projects can generate things like waste rock and tails,” Donahue said. “Which if not managed properly – which is what the standards in the state require – can generate acidity when rainwater passes through it that would leech metals.”
Donahue says that drilling, known as the exploration stage, will likely continue for the next three to five years before being able to present an environmentally sound project for the DNR Review process – an indication that the actual mining is still a long way off.
“That permitting process is very, very rigorous and it’s designed to protect water resources – which is a goal that we share as a company,” Donahue said. “And we know that those technologies and requirements work because they’ve been applied on other projects that were very successful.”
In a statement to Newswatch 12, The River Alliance of Wisconsin, an environmental advocacy group, said: “This type of mining always pollutes water and shouldn’t be permitted in a water-rich environment like the North Fork of the Yellow River.”
Hungry for income? Restaurant royalty funds might satisfy your cravings.
Think of these stocks as comfort food in the market chaos. With many royalty funds having fallen in price, their high yields have gotten even tastier.
Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp. (PZA), for instance, currently yields about 7 per cent. Keg Royalties Income Fund (KEG.UN) and Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (BPF.UN) both pay more than 8 per cent. And SIR Royalty Income Fund (SRV.UN), owner of the Jack Astor’s casual dining chain, yields more than 9 per cent.
But before you start stuffing your portfolio with pizza and steak, it’s important to understand how these securities work so you know what you’re getting into.
Restaurant royalty funds don’t own the restaurant chains themselves. Rather, they own the restaurants’ trademarks and other intellectual property, which they license to the operating company in exchange for a royalty based on a percentage – typically 4 per cent to 9 per cent – of sales. That royalty income, in turn, funds those juicy distributions to shareholders.
But high yields aren’t the only thing to like about restaurant royalty funds.
Thanks to their top-line royalty structure, these securities are insulated, to an extent, from increases in labour and raw materials costs and other factors that can play havoc with restaurant companies’ profit margins. As a result, while business would be expected to soften in a recession as consumers eat out less often, sales will likely hold up better than restaurants’ bottom lines.
That’s not to say these securities are risk-free. During the COVID-19 pandemic, dining establishments saw their sales plummet as many chains closed their doors temporarily or limited customer capacity. As a result, royalty funds slashed their distributions, and share prices collapsed.
But as restaurant sales have recovered in recent years, many of these stocks have been raising their distributions again.
Pizza Pizza, for instance, has announced eight increases since cutting its payout in 2020. Its dividend is now higher than it was before the pandemic.
This is the part where I eat some crow. Readers may recall that, back in 2018, I punted Pizza Pizza from my model Yield Hog Dividend Growth Portfolio after the chain posted a string of weak results. To me, it looked like a dying brand.
In the past few years, however, Canada’s largest pizza chain has sharpened its advertising and menu offerings to appeal to price-conscious consumers. The company’s humorous “fixed-rate pizza” and “reverse tariff” marketing campaigns, for example, were a welcome departure from Pizza Pizza’s previously staid advertising. Such efforts helped to drive same-store sales higher for three consecutive years before sales slipped 3 per cent in 2024 amid higher interest rates and inflation.
The sole analyst who follows Pizza Pizza says the chain is positioned well for an economic downturn.
“We argue that both the royalty structure and attractive value proposition make PZA more recession-resistant, but it is not immune and consumer spending weakness has begun to show,” Derek Lessard, an analyst with TD Securities, said in a March 31 note.
Despite the recent sales softness, Pizza Pizza “remains one of the best-placed Canadian [quick-service restaurants] to weather the macro turbulence, given its expansive network, a strong brand, core value offerings, and a sizeable cash buffer,” Mr. Lessard said.
He rates Pizza Pizza a “hold” with a price target of $14. The shares closed on Friday at $13.42 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Even some higher-end restaurant royalty funds have been increasing their payouts to shareholders. Keg Royalties Income Fund is now distributing 9.46 cents a month, or $1.1352 annually – the same it did before the pandemic. In addition, Keg declared special distributions in December, 2024, and December, 2023, of 4 cents and 8 cents, respectively.
Boston Pizza and SIR Royalty have also declared several special distributions in recent years, although SIR’s regular monthly distribution is still below pre-2020 levels. A fifth royalty fund, A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund, merged with the operating company, A&W Food Services of Canada Inc., in October. The combined company now trades under the symbol AW on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Restaurant royalty funds tend to fly under the radar because they have relatively tiny market capitalizations and thin trading volumes. As a result, they receive very little attention from Bay Street analysts.
If you’re considering a purchase, be mindful of the often wide spreads between bid and ask prices – a hallmark of thinly-traded stocks. In such cases, it may be advantageous to enter a limit order specifying the maximum price you are willing to pay. If you enter a market order instead, you could end up getting filled at a higher price than you expected.
As always, do your own due diligence before investing in any security, and be sure to maintain a diversified portfolio to control your risk.
E-mail your questions to jheinzl@globeandmail.com. I’m not able to respond personally to e-mails but I choose certain questions to answer in my column.
Trusted News Since 1995
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Saturday, April 19, 2025
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Even with a 90-day tariff break for most countries and milder U.S. inflation data, Canadian stocks fell Thursday amid mounting trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. A day after posting its largest single-day percentage gain in over five years, the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell by 712 points, or 3%, for the day to settle at 23,015.
Although a recovery in metals prices took mining stocks higher, nearly all other sectors suffered losses as risk aversion returned to the forefront, with healthcare and technology among the hardest hit.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year over year in March 2025, at a slower pace than February’s 2.8%, offering some relief on the inflation front. However, the softer inflation print wasn’t enough to offset investor anxiety over the deepening U.S.-China trade standoff, which continued to overshadow macroeconomic data.
Methanex, Vermilion Energy, Bausch Health, and Baytex Energy were the worst-performing TSX stocks, with each plunging by at least 13%.
On the flip side, Fortuna Mining (TSX:FVI) climbed by 6.8% to $8.69 per share after the company announced strong preliminary production results for the first quarter of 2025. The Vancouver-based precious metals miner reported consolidated gold equivalent production of 103,459 ounces across its four operating mines in West Africa and Latin America.
While Fortuna’s first-quarter production marked a sequential decline, the results reaffirmed its full-year production guidance of 380,000 to 422,000 gold equivalent ounces. Besides these production results, surging gold and silver prices also boosted investor confidence and fueled FVI stock’s rally. So far in 2025, Fortuna Mining stock has now risen 41%.
Pet Valu Holdings, Osisko Gold Royalties, and G Mining Ventures also inched up by at least 5.8% each, positioning them among the top gainers on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Based on their daily trade volume, Canadian Natural Resources, Baytex Energy, TC Energy, TD Bank, and Royal Bank of Canada were the most active stocks on the exchange.
Metals prices across the board extended their rally in early trading on Friday, with spot gold trading at a fresh all-time high, which could help support the resource-heavy TSX at the open today.
While no major domestic economic releases are due, Canadian investors will closely monitor U.S. wholesale inflation data this morning for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Any sign of continued disinflation could provide a tailwind for equity markets.
More importantly, investor focus will remain on the broader trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations, as any signs of easing tensions could help restore market confidence and stabilize equity markets.
Canada’s main stock index advanced on Friday, led by gains in materials stocks, following strong earnings from U.S. big banks including JPMorgan, while investors treaded carefully amidst heightened U.S.-China trade tensions.
Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX Composite Index rose by 0.7% to 23,167.43 points, maintaining its momentum towards a weekly gain, provided the uptick sustains.
As earnings season kicked in, profits at major U.S. banks beat estimates in the first quarter as stock trading jumped, but executives warned that the sweeping tariffs could fuel risks and weigh on economic growth.
Meanwhile, China raised its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s increase of duties on Chinese goods to 145%, intensifying the ongoing trade war between the two largest economies that threatens to upend global supply chains.
Earlier this week, Trump paused duties for dozens of countries for 90 days giving markets a brief reprieve, but concerns returned with the ongoing conflict with China, fueling fears of a recession.
“Uncertainty and volatility will continue throughout”, said Allan Small, senior investment advisor at Allan Small Financial Group with iA Private Wealth.
“The banks looks good sure, but any negativity out of the White House, and that’ll all be erased very quickly.”
On TSX, materials gained 4.1%, tracking bullion’s rise after the safe-haven metal surpassed the key $3,200 mark for the first time.
Heavyweight financial stocks were up 0.8%, after positive corporate results from U.S. peers. Sprott led the gains in the index, up 2.7%.
Bucking the trend, information technology fell 1.6%, with shares of e-commerce company Shopify slipping 5.6%.
Separately, data showed U.S. monthly producer prices unexpectedly fell in March amid a sharp decline in the cost of energy products, but tariffs on imports are expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months.
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S. dropped to 50.8 this month, compared to a forecast of 54.5.
Back home, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to convene a meeting with his top cabinet colleagues later in the day to discuss the threat posed by U.S. tariffs.
In the words of Gord Downie on The Tragically Hip’s 1994 song Thugs, “Everyone’s got their breaking point.” For Gord it was spiders. For U.S. President Donald Trump, it’s America losing its safe haven status among investors and risking systemic crisis.
After a week of wild gyrations in markets brought on by his worldwide reciprocal tariffs, we’ll explore the ways Trump is testing the breaking points of the global financial system. But first:
Trade: Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his first public comments today amid an escalating trade war with the United States, warning there can be no winner in such a conflict, even as Beijing ramped up tariffs on U.S. goods to 125 per cent.
Diversification: TC Energy CEO touts Asia as key to Canada’s economic diversification away from the U.S.
Retail: Bids for Hudson’s Bay Co. may include company insider, according to document
Opinion: Donald Trump is Wall Street’s Frankenstein, and the billionaires have lost control of their creation, Rita Trichur writes
TD shareholders confront bank leaders about anti-money-laundering failures at AGM
Telus dropped 3,300 net jobs in 2024, CEO earnings decline
A trader at the New York Stock Exchange on April 10.Jeenah Moon/Reuters
From the moment Trump stood in the Rose Garden on April 2 holding a large placard to announce his “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, global markets have been on a stomach-churning ride – mostly downward.
Trump was upending the global trading system, sending American trade policy back to the 1930s in the process and justifying it with an almost comically-simplistic formula.
Almost comically because the consequences of his tariff plan would inevitably drive up inflation, disrupt supply chains and threaten millions of jobs. But even as stocks plummeted, marking one of the worst starts to a presidency since 1945, Trump and his advisers brushed off concerns.
That was, right up until Wednesday when Trump flip-flopped and announced a 90-day pause on his retaliatory tariffs (though not for China – its tariff was hiked to 145 per cent.)
Why Trump blinked
Trump loves few things more than bragging about his stock market performance. So as stock markets around the world tumbled, and warnings piled up from some of Wall Street’s most powerful figures that the tariffs could tip the United States into recession, Trump and his team seemed surprisingly unmoved.
That all changed when the bottom began to fall out of another market: bonds.
In times of uncertainty, investors typically flee stocks for the safety of bonds – the safest being U.S. Treasuries. For a spell this week, that pattern broke and both fell. When bonds fall, the cost to the lender to borrow money rises, and in short order the yield on 10-year Treasuries surged more than half a percentage point to the highest level since Feb. 20.
It wasn’t just that Treasury yields were rising – the opposite of Trump’s stated goal of lowering interest rates.
The bond market upheaval was widely interpreted as a sign that investors were losing faith in America’s safe haven status, and as Eric Reguly wrote, that set off alarm bells in the White House.
The confidence game
The financial system is entirely built on trust – that loans get repaid, that investor money is secure and that institutions are incorruptible. In that way, the U.S. has long anchored the modern democratic, free-market order, while U.S. Treasuries, with the full backing of the American government, underpin the global financial system. Trump’s actions have raised questions about all of that.
In the end, Trump’s 90-day pause led bond markets to calm down, though the S&P 500 resumed falling Thursday. But in addition to the market instability, investors saw plenty this week to give them pause.
What’s the breaking point?
Shortly before Trump backpedalled on his reciprocal tariffs, I spoke with Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, about what the spike in bond yields and the falling U.S. dollar all meant.
“What you’re seeing, fundamentally, is a fading in the American exceptionalism trade,” he said.
But this week also showed the world Trump is willing to hurl boulders at the established order in ways no president has in decades, perhaps even a century.
What would it take for those boulders to break the financial system? Schamotta listed several policy moves investors are worried the Trump administration could still take:
This week, Trump blinked. But only after testing just how far he could push the financial system before it cracked.
Turns out all you need to do to eviscerate your country’s tourism industry is insult all your allies, threaten to invade their countries and launch trade wars with everyone. New Statistics Canada numbers show a 32-per-cent drop in Canadian trips to the U.S. by car, while U.S. border data shows international arrivals at major American airports are in free-fall.
By the dozen: U.S. egg prices increase to record high, dashing hopes of cheap eggs by Easter
Down: P.E.I. tables budget with record $184-million deficit in face of economic uncertainty
Across: Meet the Canadian linguist taking the crossword world by storm
For you: Do you have questions about your mortgage? We want to hear them
Global stocks were mixed a day after euphoria over Trump’s global tariff reprieve faded as the reality of his escalating trade war with China once again rattled financial markets and stoked fears of a broad economic downturn. This morning, Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was flat in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.73 per cent, Germany’s DAX fell 0.7 per cent and France’s CAC 40 was little changed.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 2.96 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.13 per cent.
The Canadian dollar traded at 71.90 U.S. cents.
At Scotiabank we have seen firsthand how emerging digital frauds can cause significant disruption to unsuspecting consumers. And, most recently, we have seen a number of these attempts, including smishing and phishing, across the region.
‘Smishing’ is derived from the combination of “SMS” and “Phishing.” Smishing involves fraudulent text messages designed to trick recipients into revealing sensitive information through a reply or by clicking malicious links. These texts often impersonate reputable institutions such as banks, government agencies or well-known brands, exploiting the trust naturally placed in these organisations.
‘Phishing’ is believed to be derived from ‘fishing’, as in fishing for victims using bait. It is a form of cyberattack where an attempt is made to deceive people into providing sensitive information, such as passwords, credit card numbers or other personal details. Fraudsters often achieve this by posing as trustworthy entities through emails, websites, text messages or phone calls.
These attacks can affect individuals in numerous ways. A popular example of ‘smishing’ is the use of a text message prompting you to verify your account details, claim an unexpected reward or warn of an urgent security breach. Once you click on a provided link or respond with personal data, cybercriminals can gain access to your bank account, steal your identity or even commit further fraud in your name.
The damage from such frauds is not limited to immediate financial loss; it can also lead to long-term issues, such as ruined credit scores and the headache of restoring your identity.
Protecting yourself against smishing starts with developing a healthy level of skepticism.
Here are four tips from Scotiabank to protect against ‘Smishing’ attempts:
In addition to the tips, practise the 3 Rs of Fraud Prevention:
Reject: Do not engage with potential fraudsters. Avoid clicking on suspicious links, providing sensitive information, or responding to unsolicited messages.
Report: Immediately report any suspected fraudulent activity to your financial institution. Prompt reporting can help prevent further loss.
Recognize: Stay alert to the common signs of fraud. Be aware of unusual requests, unexpected communications and offers that seem too good to be true.
As we navigate this digital era, it is critical to remain vigilant and proactive about our online security, ensuring that our financial well-being is safeguarded against even the most subtle cyber threats.
About Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s vision is to be our clients’ most trusted financial partner and deliver sustainable, profitable growth. Guided by our purpose: “for every future,” we help our clients, their families and their communities achieve success through a broad range of advice, products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. With assets of approximately $1.4 trillion (as at January 31, 2025), Scotiabank is one of the largest banks in North America by assets, and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: BNS) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: BNS). For more information, please visit www.scotiabank.com and follow us on X @Scotiabank.
