Freegold Ventures Limited (TSX: FVL) has entered into an agreement with Paradigm Capital Inc. in connection with a proposed best efforts private placement financing for total proceeds of up to approximately C$30M, consisting of up to 32,295,000 units of the company at a price of C$0.85 per unit.
Each unit will be comprised of one common share of the company and one half of one common share purchase warrant of the company.
Each warrant will be exercisable to acquire one common share of the company for 24 months from the closing date at an exercise price of C$1.30 per warrant share. The warrants shall be callable by the company should the daily volume-weighted average trading price of the common shares of the company on the Toronto Stock Exchange exceed C$1.30 for a period of 20 consecutive trading days, at any time during the period (i) beginning on the date that is six months from the closing date of the offering, and (ii) ending on the date the warrants expire (call trigger).
Following a call trigger, the company may give notice to warrant holders that any remaining warrants unexercised by the holder thereof shall expire 30 days following the date on which the call notice is given.
Additionally, the company will grant the agent an option to sell up to that number of additional units equal to 15% of the base offering size, exercisable by notice in writing to the company at any time not less than 48 hours prior to the closing date.
The agent will be paid by the company on closing of the offering a cash commission equal to 6% of the gross proceeds of the offering including on any exercise of the over-allotment option.
The net proceeds from the offering will be used for general working capital and corporate purposes.
TSX extends recovery as resource shares lead broad-based gains
CANADA-STOCKS/ (UPDATE 1):CANADA STOCKS-TSX extends recovery as resource shares lead broad-based gains
Reuters
Published18 Mar 2025, 01:49 AM IST
TSX extends recovery as resource shares lead broad-based gains
(Updates at market close)
By Fergal Smith
March 17 (Reuters) – Canada’s main stock index rallied for a second straight day on Monday as some investors took the view that the recent selloff in the market was a buying opportunity, with energy and metal mining shares leading broad-based gains.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 231.71 points, or 0.9%, at 24,785.11, extending its rebound from a four-and-a-half-month low on Thursday.
“We got quite oversold,” said Stan Wong, portfolio manager at Scotia Wealth Management. “Not too surprised that we have a little bit of a reprieve in the markets.”
Wall Street also rallied as investors assessed the latest economic data to gauge the impact of the Trump administration’s policies.
U.S. tariff hikes will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the United States while driving up inflation, the OECD forecast.
If additional “tariff talk comes out of the U.S. that might slow us down a little bit but really I see the recent volatility more as an opportunity rather than as an obstacle,” Wong said.
The energy sector rose 1.5% as the price of oil settled 0.6% higher at $67.58 a barrel.
Supportive of oil, the U.S. vowed to keep attacking Yemen’s Houthis until the Iran-aligned group ends its assaults on shipping, while Chinese economic data buoyed hopes for higher demand.
TerraVest Industries Inc shares jumped 20.5% after the home heating product manufacturer announced the acquisition of EnTrans International.
The materials sector, which includes fertilizer companies and metal mining shares, added 1.8%, as gold and copper prices climbed.
All ten major sectors ended higher, with heavily weighted financials gaining 1.1%. (Reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto and Nikhil Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Leroy Leo and Deepa Babingtong)
The State of the Ontario Mining Sector, a report published by the Ontario Mining Association (OMA), supported by Ontario’s Ministry of Mines, reveals that Ontario’s domestic mineral exports — minerals and metals extracted in the province — were valued at $64 billion in 2023, making up more than 25% of Ontario’s total exported goods. Ontario’s mineral exports to the USA totaled $42 billion, including $5.7 billion from critical minerals such as platinum group metals (PGMs), nickel, copper, uranium and zinc. As far as Ontario’s critical mineral exports, 57% went to the USA. Editor’s note: All values in this article are Canadian dollars.
With 18 gold mines, Ontario produced approximately 2.9 million ounces of gold in 2023 valued at $6.5 billion — 45% of Canada’s total and 3% of global production. The province also has 12 advanced gold exploration projects.
The province is also home to nine active critical mineral mines and 10 processing facilities, producing materials such as nickel, copper, PGMs, and cobalt, saw total production value of $6.4 billion in 2023. By 2040, demand for nickel is projected to be 14 times higher than in 2021, while cobalt demand is expected to rise sevenfold and copper demand threefold. The Sudbury Basin and the Ring of Fire contain key deposits of nickel, copper, platinum, and chromite.
The sector contributes $23.8 billion to Ontario’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, nearly 3% of the province’s total GDP. Mining invested $5.2 billion in capital expenditures, supporting employment and regional development. Approximately 22,000 people are directly employed in mining, earning an average of $150,000 annually, nearly double the provincial all-industry average. Additionally, 12% of the mining workforce identifies as Indigenous, compared to 3% across Ontario’s overall workforce. A further 126,000 jobs are indirectly supported by the sector.
“Ontario’s mining sector is a cornerstone of our technology-driven economy, delivering well-paying jobs, producing essential inputs to North America’s manufacturing supply chain, and plays a vital role in our continental security,” said Priya Tandon, president of the OMA.
Ontario had 36 active mining operations in 2023, with mineral production valued at $15.7 billion — a 50% increase over the past decade. Between 2019 and 2024, four new operating mines opened in Northern Ontario, with six new mine projects and four mine expansions currently underway.
Ontario is also the leading global centre for mining finance. The Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange list 40% of the world’s publicly traded mining companies, with a combined market value of $603 billion at the end of 2024 — more than triple their 2015 value.
Exploration spending reached $976 million in 2023, representing 23% of total exploration spend across Canada. Exploration is especially vital for nickel, copper, and zinc where reserves have decreased substantially over the past quarter century: nickel by 58%, copper by 67%, and zinc by 95%. There are 32 significant mineral projects in Ontario, including projects in the Ring of Fire area.
Looking ahead, Ontario’s mining sector is poised for continued growth and global competitiveness, Tandon explained. “By leveraging its rich mineral resources, embracing innovation, and strengthening community and Indigenous partnerships, Ontario will remain a global leader in responsible mining,” she said. “The sector’s contributions to GDP, trade, and technological advancement underscore its pivotal role in shaping Ontario’s economic future.”
Canadian mining companies and most domestic mining associations seem to agree on one idea: The permitting and approvals process in Canada needs to be vastly improved so that mining projects come into production much quicker than they do now.
Canada’s focus on securing critical minerals to overcome the Chinese monopoly has led many politicians and policy makers to give mining approvals a second look. Critical minerals are low hanging fruit. The International Energy Agency says demand for copper, nickel and zinc will explode over the next 15 years. Their conclusion? Canada will assuredly look the race for critical minerals and rare earth elements if the nation’s policy makers do not streamline and expedite approvals and permitting.
The Mining Association of Canada (MAC) – a national organization which has served as the national voice for Canada’s mining industry for decades – released a landmark report in November 2022 called Project Permitting in Canada and the Mining Industry put a microscope onto this important issue.
Here is the MAC report’s conclusion: “There is a broad consensus that the timeline for the planning and approval process for new projects, (including “no go”) has to be shortened from 10-15 years without losing the requirements for good planning, environmental protection and Indigenous consultation.”
The report went on to describe the obstacle to reform: “For nearly 30 years, the objective of “one project one assessment” remains elusive. The combination of provincial and federal assessment and approval processes, and related necessary Indigenous engagement, continues to fall short of coordinated, timely and efficient planning. Such uncoordinated process duplication is not seen in other countries.”
Numerous reform attempts have sought to achieve this laudable “one project one assessment” goal, but governments at both levels seem to continually add more nebulous evaluative criteria to mining approvals. Indigenous consultation requirements can also affect timelines, which creates more incentive for an expedited permitting process that brings Indigenous parties into the process throughout.
Media have documented over the years how the oil and gas sector has managed to do a better job at creating so-called “single window” permitting process, such as the B.C. Energy Regulator, which has now added renewable energy projects to its purview.
While there are indeed examples and case studies in Canada to draw upon, some other jurisdictions have attempted more radical changes to bring the full attention of government to the goal of vastly expediting permitting.
One such example is Idaho’s so-called SPEED Act. We turn to that now.
Idaho’s SPEED Act and mining approvals
On January 24, 2025, Idaho Governor Brad Little Signed executive order 2025-02, the Strategic Permitting, Efficiency, and Economic Development (SPEED) Act. The Act aimed at better coordinating state permitting on major projects that promote energy independence, support national security, and drive the economy. Thus, the governor passed the law to push forward priority projects that met the above criteria.
Idaho Governor Brad Little signed the SPEED Act in late January 2025. CREDIT: Official photo, Governor’s Office.
How exactly does the SPEED Act work? Well, according to a government news release, the executive order creates a new SPEED council comprised of several state agency directors that will aim to expedite the review of permits and increase collaboration with project proponents. The order’s overarching goal is to seek to eliminate duplicative or unnecessary statutes and rules.
The new policy regime also aims to include all infrastructure requirements within the approvals process. The press release reads: “Large scale projects that require permits from multiple state agencies could include electricity generation and transmission projects, mining projects, data center development, fabrication facilities, water facilities, and other important projects that support communities across Idaho, as determined by the SPEED Council.”
Mining industry observers also highlighted the unprecedented co-ordination between the governor’s office and state agencies. During the unveiling of the new executive order, Governor Little was joined by joined by Lt. Governor Scott Bedke and several state agency directors. Government sources announced that Richard Stover – administrator of the Governor’s Office of Energy and Mineral Resources – will chair the SPEED Council and Lt. Governor Scott Bedke will advise the council.
At the unveiling news conference, Governor Little stated, “Idaho leads the nation in streamlining regulations and promoting good government, but there is always more we can do to improve. With President Trump’s return to the White House, there is a renewed focus on efficiency in government at the federal level. In that same spirit, here in Idaho we are going to take even more steps to make sure state government does not get in the way of projects that support our economy.”
Before continuing forward, it is important to get a better sense of Idaho as a mining destination and how the regulatory climate was prior to the SPEED Act.
Idaho as an historic mining jurisdiction
Idaho is famously called the “gem state.” This was a nickname it received during its pre-state territorial days. However, it did not gain the name from its gem or mineral wealth. Historical sources say the name was more about hype. The word Idaho was supposedly derived from a purported Indian word “EDah-Hoe” meaning “Gem of the Mountains” or “Light on the Mountain.” Thus, the name was adopted to draw attention to the territory in order to make its case for statehood. However, since that time, the state has become renowned for its rich mining history and potential.
Map of Idaho containing mineral and metal deposits. CREDIT: Idaho Mining Association.
It was in fact gold that drew many non-Indigenous settlers to the state in the first place and its discovery propelled the territory to statehood in 1863. However, gold deposits began to disappear, leading prospectors to seek other minerals. By the late 1800s, silver, lead, and zinc were discovered in the Coeur D’Alene area. Idaho now produces about 45% of all silver in the United States. The state also produces about 15% of the phosphate produced in the United States. Finally, true to its original name, Idaho now produces many precious and semi-precious stones.
To get an international perspective, it is important to see how Idaho sits relative to other similarly suited jurisdictions. The Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies presents one tool to evaluate the mining policy attractiveness of various jurisdictions. Many jurisdictions around the world have strong mineral potential but are not stable policy environments that are enticing to investors and mining exploration. The Fraser Institute’s survey involves interacting with mining executives, so it reflects the opinions of decision makers.
When asked about the Fraser Institute’s most recent 2023 figures, Fraser Institute Policy Analyst Julio Mejía pointed out that Idaho ranked 20th out of 86 jurisdictions in terms of investment attractiveness and 25th of 86 in terms of policy alone.
Fraser Institute policy analyst Julio Mejía. CREDIT: Fraser Institute.
He added that, “Investors in Idaho expressed reduced concern over infrastructure issues and uncertainty surrounding disputed land claims, with none of the respondents citing these factors as deterrents to investment. Only 11% of respondents stated that Idaho’s labor regulations deter investment, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to 2022.”
One potential area where comparing Idaho to Canada becomes tricky is in Indigenous land claims. Although U.S. mining companies do have to deal with Native American groups, especially if a project affects a tribe’s lands, but land claims uncertainty is much of a pronounced issue in Canada, especially given unceded lands in B.C. and elsewhere. In the United States, tribal boundaries are much clearer.
Regarding permit times, Mejía said the Fraser Institute did not receive enough responses to include Idaho in the 2023 permit times sub survey, as only Alaska and Nevade received more than the five necessary responses to meet the threshold to be included in the survey. Thus, it would be difficult to state with certainty exactly how Idaho stood in permitting immediately before the SPEED Act was brought in.
U.S. states ahead of Canada in terms of permitting: Analyst
Although the Fraser Institute’s annual survey could not provide the most clarity on Idaho’s position, Mejía, however, said overall this most recent survey and previous ones have highlighted general trends between Canada and the United States. Mejía said that the U.S. has on average the highest percentage of respondents indicating that they received their permits in six months or less (80 percent). By contrast, this average was 59 percent amongst Canadian jurisdictions. Similarly, on average, 54 percent of respondents for Canadian jurisdictions indicated that permit approval times had lengthened either somewhat or considerably (emphasis added) over the past 10 years, which compares to 35 percent who said that was the case in the United States.
Moreover, an average of 73 percent of respondents indicated that the US met its established timelines for approval decisions between 60 and 100 percent of the time, in contrast, on average, 59 percent of respondents for Canada said this was the case. Also, an average of 38 percent of respondents for Canada said that a lack of transparency deters investment in the country, compared to 32 percent for the US. Finally, an average of 77 percent of survey respondents in Canada expressed either confidence or high confidence that the necessary permits will be granted, compared to 83 percent of respondents for the United States.
Thus, it seems that, at least according to the mining executives that are involved in the Fraser Institute’s annual survey, it would be more likely good ideas to speed up permitting and approvals would come from the United States. In fact, some mining companies that are seeking to build mines in Idaho are specifically mentioning the SPEED Act as a contributor factor in their decision to build in Idaho. We turn now to two projects, the first being Perpetua Resource’s Stibnite gold project and the second being Liberty Gold’s Black Pine project.
Perpetua Resources, Stibnite gold, and the SPEED Act
Perpetua Resources Corp, headquartered in Boise, Idaho, is publicly traded on Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange. The company is fully determined to complete its Stibnite gold project in central Idaho. The new operation will involve recovery of an abandoned mine site. The site is about 44 air miles northwest of Cascade, Idaho and near Yellowpine, Idaho.
The company’s pre-feasibility study from 2014 found the Stibnite gold project had the largest known source of antimony in the United States. Antimony is a critical mineral vital for defense, technology, and energy application. With an estimated reserve of 148 million pounds of antimony, the project could meet up to 35% of U.S. antimony demand in its initial six years of production, significantly reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.
Moreover, the study also found the project contained one of the top 10 gold deposits in the United States. In total, the company estimated in its study that it could recover more than four million ounces of gold over the mine’s projected 12 years of life. The study also concluded the high grades of the gold to be recovered would keep operating costs low relative to gold operations overseas.
The Idaho-based company has already taken steps on the mining project, including signing s environmental clean up agreement in 2021 with the EPA and US Forest Service. The agreement granted permission to Perpetua to conduct early-action cleanup, and under the oversight of the agencies, to remove legacy waste and maintain water quality.
Perpetua was delighted when the Idaho governor introduced the SPEED Act, as it believed its mining operation achieved the exact objectives that the Act was introduced for.
Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources, commented, “We are thrilled to see Governor Little take decisive action to streamline permitting without compromising environmental integrity. The SPEED Act aligns perfectly with Perpetua’s vision to restore an abandoned mine site and responsibly develop domestic mineral resources for a more secure future.”
The Idaho Mining Association – a non-profit organization acting as a voice for the industry in the state – has also apparently been impressed with the SPEED Act and is backing it.
Ben Davenport, the executive director of the organization, stated, “The SPEED Act exemplifies Idaho’s common sense, forward-thinking leadership. We hope that by improving communication and coordination, Idaho can help vital projects like the Stibnite gold project deliver hundreds of well-paid and highly skilled jobs to our rural communities.”
Ben Davenport, executive director of the Idaho Mining Association. CREDIT: Idaho Mining Association.
Liberty Gold and the SPEED Act
Liberty Gold – a Vancouver-based mining company – has set its sights on a reviving a gold project in southern Idaho. The company has placed much hope in an expedited timeline the SPEED Act is making possible. The Black Pine oxide gold project, located in southeastern Idaho, is a past producing open pit, run-of-mine heap leach mine. In the past, Pegasus Gold mined about 435, 000 ounces of gold and 189,000 ounces of silver from five open pit mines between 1991 and 1997.
Liberty Gold says the exploration site now covers about 40 sq. km. In the middle of 2024, Liberty Gold launched a 20,000-metre drilling effort on seven new high priority targets. The company has now completed a preliminary feasibility study for the project showing strong economic potential.
Henry Lazenby, a journalist with the Northern Miner (a sister publication to the Canadian Mining Journal), has written how Liberty Gold has set an ambitious 2028 construction start for the Black Pine project.
Liberty Gold CEO said, “We are establishing a strong foundation for advancing Black Pine through the permitting process to a potential construction decision within three years, ensuring the project meets the highest environmental and operating standards.”
The Northern Miner article also mentioned Liberty signed an agreement with government agencies with the aim of helping it complete reviews for the environmental impact statement. The company is expecting that to start next year. Final permits should be ready by 2027 and the company believes a construction decision could be made by early 2028.
Black Pine is set to benefit from the provisions of the SPEED Act as it navigates a presumably more efficient permitting landscape.
L3 Capital analysts told the Northern Miner that this framework can reduce permitting risks. It also hoped that it may also speed up the construction decision process.
However, company officials have stressed much of the SPEED Act’s promise is still theoretical at this stage. Matt Zietlow, Liberty Gold’s director of regulatory affairs and sustainability, said, “While the governor did sign an executive order creating the SPEED Act in January, it is not (yet) a functionally active process. They anticipate a Q3 or Q4 launch this fall.”
He clarified, “Given that, we of course can’t opine on any actual “Liberty Gold experience” with the SPEED Act yet, but Liberty strongly supports and commends the Governor’s efforts to improve and streamline the overall permitting process in Idaho.”
Zietlow also added that for more than a year Liberty Gold and key staff from the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality and the Idaho Department of Lands have already been engaged in frequent consultation on status of the Black Pine project, proposed design, ongoing baseline studies and projected permit timelines.
He said: “These joint efforts, along with a recently completed memorandum of understanding between Liberty Gold, state agencies, and the U.S Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, directly address Governor Little’s stated first responsibility for members of the environmental council to be created by the SPEED Act.”
While expediting the regulatory and permitting process, Zietlow said the SPEED Act, from his reading, does not affect regulatory and environmental rigour.
He said: “The SPEED Act aims to improve overall efficiency of the permitting process with a more visible process, enhanced communication, and regular accountability to help insure reasonable and predictable permit timelines can be achieved. The Act does not circumvent or eliminate any environmental safeguards or required and appropriate environmental analyses.”
Thus, despite all the promise on paper, the jury is still out on the exact and measurable performance of the SPEED Act on the ground. Both Perpetua Resources and Liberty Gold will come to see how the executive order improves permitting timelines and whether it can enhance investor confidence in Idaho projects. Liberty Gold has already taken the next step with an optimistic timeline for construction.
Challenge is in reforming bureaucracies: Mining policy analyst
For some mining policy analysts, it is always about bridging permitting reform with actual performance on shovel-ready projects.
Heather Exner-Pirot is a senior fellow with the non-partisan Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa. She is also the Institute’s director of energy, natural resources, and environment. When asked about the SPEED Act and permitting reform in general, she replied by email that, “Every jurisdiction in the western world is looking at how to reduce regulatory and permitting burdens. The overriding philosophy is no longer coming from the environmental side, but from the economic and national security sides.”
She added, “Getting rid of red tape and building things are politically winning messages right now. The challenge is reforming bureaucracies, so they respond in kind.”
Heather Exner-Pirot is a senior fellow with the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute. She is also the Institute’s director of energy, natural resources, and environment. CREDIT: Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
In other words, permitting reforms are likely only as good as the bureaucracies that are administering the process changes.
The Canadian Mining Journal shared a full link to the SPEED Act to a few Canadian mining associations, asking for comment. One organization gave a response in time for publication, issuing a warning to Canadian jurisdictions to take the issuing of new executive orders as evidence that they need to respond likewise to maintain our competitive edge.
Michael Goehring – CEO of the Mining Association of BC – stated, “If more states than just Idaho begin to match President Trump’s recent executive order on energy and critical minerals to boost domestic energy and mineral production, the competitive position of BC’s and Canada’s mining sector will further erode. These state and federal executive orders require an urgent policy response to keep Canadian capital and mining talent from heading to the United States. Together with Trump’s tariffs, these executive orders are a double-barrel threat to our economy, people, and prosperity and underscore the urgency for the BC and federal governments to secure First Nations partnerships and streamline permitting processes to get new mines built in the provincial and national interest.”
Sagicor is cautioning its shareholders in Barbados and elsewhere about a mini-tender offer New York Stock and Bond LLC has made to buy up to 100 000 of the group’s common shares for about US$430 000.
“Sagicor is in no way associated with New York Stock and Bond and does not recommend or endorse acceptance of this unsolicited offer,” Sagicor Financial Company Limited advised in a release last week.
The group, which has its beginnings in Barbados and whose stock is now listed exclusively on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in Canada, said it was notified of an unsolicited mini-tender offer made by New York Stock and Bond “to purchase up to 100 000 Sagicor common shares, or less than 0.075 per cent of the common shares outstanding, at a price of US$4.30 per common share”.
“The unsolicited offer represents a discount of approximately 23.98 per cent below the closing price of Sagicor’s common shares on the TSX on February 13, 2025, the last trading day before the mini-tender offer was commenced, and a discount of approximately 14.17 per cent to the closing price of Sagicor’s common shares on the TSX on March 7, 2025,” Sagicor said.
Serious concerns
“The common shares do not trade on a recognised stock exchange in the United States (US).”
The group told shareholders that mini-tender offers “are designed to seek less than five per cent of a company’s outstanding shares, avoiding disclosure
and procedural requirements applicable to most bids under Canadian and US securities regulations”.
It reminded that securities regulators “have expressed serious concerns about mini-tender offers”.
Sagicor advised shareholders to “carefully review the New York Stock and Bond offer documents and current market price for Sagicor common shares and consult their investment advisors regarding any offer they may receive and review with their advisors all options for their investment in Sagicor common shares”.
The group added: “According to New York Stock and Bond’s offer documents, Sagicor shareholders who have already tendered their common shares can withdraw their shares no more than 14 days after the date of delivery of their tender form to the depositary by following the procedure described in the offer documents.” (SC)
The collaboration sets ABB as the preferred supplier of modular and standard electrical substations, with future scope for automation solutions.
ABB and Charbone Hydrogen Agree to Advance North American Green Hydrogen Production Facilities
ABB and Charbone Hydrogen Corporation–an integrated green hydrogen production company based in Montreal, Canada–have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement to collaborate on the development of up to 15 modular and scalable green hydrogen production facilities across North America over the next five years, providing a clean fuel source for existing hydrogen users and heavy industrial processes such as steelmaking, which currently use grey hydrogen as an energy source.
The MoU scope positions ABB as the preferred supplier for the design, engineering, fabrication, testing and supply of modular and standard electrical substations (eHouses) for the interconnection between production facilities and local utilities. ABB will support Charbone in standardizing basic engineering for systems and components across its project portfolio, to increase energy efficiency and reliability. Future scope may also see ABB operate as the main automation, electrification and telecom contractor depending on project requirements.
Among the sites covered by the collaboration is Charbone’s flagship Sorel-Tracy facility near Montreal in Québec, Canada. The facility is expected to be connected to the Hydro-Québec grid by the end of quarter two in 2025, using hydro electricity to power green hydrogen electrolyzers. The plant will create a blueprint for the design and engineering of modular and scalable equipment for other sites being developed by Charbone. The next project to get underway will be in the greater Detroit area in the US, which is the manufacturing base for major automotive companies.
“This strategic collaboration with ABB is a strong and significant signal about our proposition for the North American green hydrogen market,” said Daniel Charette, chief operating officer of Charbone Hydrogen Corporation. “With the Sorel-Tracy project moving quickly to on-site activities, and the capabilities of plug and play modular approach to get production starting in a minimal number of weeks, Charbone will support the decarbonization of industry.”
Gouvernement du Québec has developed a localized Green Hydrogen and Bioenergy Strategy to support the deployment of hydrogen and bioenergy to power industrial sectors such as transportation, primary metals and chemicals. It identifies green hydrogen and bioenergy as having the potential to reduce Québec’s consumption of petroleum products by nearly one billion liters a year by 2030. This could cut the region’s greenhouse gas emissions by four megatons of carbon dioxide a year–the equivalent of removing 1.2 million gasoline-powered vehicles from the roads.
“Green hydrogen has an important role to play in the transition towards a low carbon energy future,” said Per Erik Holsten, President of ABB Energy Industries. “We are proud to collaborate with Charbone on its strategy to develop and grow green hydrogen production facilities across North America, enabling an important sector to scale and supporting industries to outrun leaner and cleaner.”
In addition to the MoU, Charbone will acquire ABB’s Extended Operator Workplace (EOW) system for all the planned facilities and a main Operator Workplace at Charbone’s headquarters to monitor all the facilities. The EOWs–the first to be installed in green hydrogen production plants in North America–will enhance production and reduce downtime via 24/7 monitoring from local and remote-control centers.
Global hydrogen demand, largely concentrated in the refining and chemical sectors, reached 97 megatons (Mt) in 2023, representing an increase of 2.5% year on year. Low-emissions hydrogen production was less than 1 Mt, but it could reach 49 Mtpa by 2030 based on announced projects.
About ABB
ABB is a global technology leader in electrification and automation, enabling a more sustainable and resource-efficient future. By connecting its engineering and digitalization expertise, ABB helps industries run at high performance, while becoming more efficient, productive and sustainable so they outperform. At ABB, we call this “Engineered to Outrun.” The company has over 140 years of history and around 110,000 employees worldwide. ABB’s shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange (ABBN) and Nasdaq Stockholm (ABB).
About CHARBONE
CHARBONE is an integrated green hydrogen company focused on creating a network of modular green hydrogen production facilities across North America. Using renewable energy, CHARBONE produces eco-friendly dihydrogen (H2) for industrial, institutional, commercial, and future mobility users. CHARBONE is currently the only publicly traded pure-play green hydrogen company, with shares listed on the TSX Venture Exchange; the OTC Markets; and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
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The architects of the new US foreign economic policy expected dollar appreciation to absorb some of the cost of US tariffs and for some exporters to cut prices. Instead, the dollar has mostly fallen against the major currencies.
Last week, the greenback recorded new lows for the year against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, euro, sterling, the Japanese yen, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. Beijing acted forcefully against Walmart’s attempt to force deeper deflation on China’s producers to avoid losing market share and increasing prices in the US.
The risk of partial federal US government shutdown was minimized, but, in some ways, it may set the stage for a larger confrontation later. Similarly, while the winter storms in January may be exaggerating the slowing of the US economy in the near-term, the medium-term outlook is fraught with risk. The combination of uncertainty (tariffs and response) and certainty (federal government layoffs and cooling of immigration) appears to be stalling corporate investment decisions, undermining consumer confidence, and may be dampening discretionary consumption.
Still, the US real sector data (retail sales, industrial output, and housing starts) should be consistent with expanding activity in February. The Federal Reserve can be expected to reiterate Chair Powell’s recent comments about the economy being strong enough to allow it to be patient until a clearer picture emerges.
The Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Bank of Japan are set to meet, and they will likely not do anything. The BOE will keep the door open to further cuts, while the BOJ could start looking at additional hikes. The Riksbank may finish easing before Norway’s Norges Bank even begins.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to take another step back to the zero-bound by cutting its deposit rate to 0.25% from 0.50%. Germany’s new fiscal initiative and government is taking shape. China may announce new initiatives on Monday to support domestic demand.
United States
Drivers: Worries about growth have increased in the US, which, at this juncture, continue to seem somewhat exaggerated, though we think economic weakness is still to come. This, coupled with the fiscal response from Europe, has tarnished the US exceptionalism meme. More tariff threats are possible, and the reciprocal tariffs and auto sector action are expected in early April.
Data: The January data was skewed by winter storms and efforts to get ahead of the threatened US tariffs. We expect the February real sector data to show an improved picture, with a recovery in retail sales and housing starts, as well as continued growth in industrial output.
The manufacturing sector added 10,000 workers in February after losing 15,000 in the previous two months. Last year, the US lost over 100,000 manufacturing jobs while manufacturing output was flat. Still, the highlight next week is the FOMC meeting.
There is no doubt that it will standpat. The Summary of Economic Projections, the dot plot, will be updated. Therein lies most of the interest. Fed Chair Powell spoke on March 7. His comments suggested that while the economy is sufficiently strong, there is still warrant to be cautious amid the heightened uncertainty. Last December, the median dot anticipated two rate cuts this year. It may not have changed much in the past three months.
Prices: The Dollar Index made a marginal new high for the week before the weekend near the 104.10 mark, but it continued to meet sellers. It has failed to settle above the 104.00 level since March 6. Last week’s low was near the 103.20 mark, its lowest since mid-October 2024. The momentum indicators are stretched, but they do not seem to rule out new lows.
Eurozone
Drivers: The fiscal response to the US shift is still evolving, but the direction of travel is clear, even if more details need to be worked out. Still, it looks like a German agreement is at hand, and a vote under the previous parliament configuration is possible. The European interest rate discount to the US has narrowed, and this is supportive for the euro. European equities are outperforming the US after Europeans bought a record amount of US shares in 2024. The dramatic price action in exchange rates and asset prices may spur new portfolio allocation decisions.
Data: The economic data will seem dated given the fiscal developments, and in any event, do not typically shift the market or sway central bank officials. The highlights include January trade and current account balances surplus, and Germany’s ZEW survey. The German assessment of the current economic situation fell in the last five months of 2024 but has risen in the first two months of 2025. However, it is still lower than all but November-December last year.
The expectations component jumped in February to 26.0 (from 10.3 in January). That is the most optimistic since last July. Separately, the Swiss National Bank is to meet. Disinflationary forces may give officials the scope to bring the deposit rate to 0.25%. If the recent weakening of the franc against the euro can be sustained, this cut could be the last in the cycle for the SNB, barring a new shock.
Prices: The euro reached almost $1.0950 last week, its best level since last October. It pulled back but held above the $1.08 mark, giving the consolidation a bullish feel. The $1.10 area is of psychological interest while the 2024 peak from last September was near the $1.1215 level. The euro rose by about 0.40% last week. This was only the second time since last August it strung together back-to-back weekly gains.
China
Drivers: The yuan remains closely managed, and Chinese officials obtained relative stability through formal and informal mechanisms. Three-month implied volatility is about 5.1%. It briefly traded below 5% in late February, for the first time since last August. To put it in perspective, leaving aside the Hong Kong dollar, among emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee (~3.9%) and the Philippine peso (~5.2%) are the only ones lower.
Data: With the February CPI and PPI reported last week, attention has turned to real sector data. The way China reports its data (e.g., year-to-date, year-over-year) makes it difficult to assess, especially given the limited January data. The 20% increase in US tariffs cannot be helpful even if China’s exports to the US have fallen as a percentage of its overall trade and GDP.
In February 2024, industrial output rose 7.0% year-to-date, year-over-year. It looks to be around 5.3% this year. Retail sales rose 5.5% in February 2024 year-to-date, year-over-year, and looks to have slowed below 4% this year. Beijing needs to provide more stimulus if its economic targets of around 5% growth and 2% inflation are to be achieved. An announcement is also expected on Monday that may propose new initiatives to boost domestic demand.
Prices: Chinese officials show no sign of trying to blunt the 20% US tariff hike with currency depreciation. They have also blocked efforts by Walmart to try to get the local producers to eat the tariff (by lowering their prices). The yuan has appreciated so far this year, and Chinese stocks are among the strongest performers here in Q1.
The dollar traded at a marginal new low for the year last week against the onshore yuan (~CNY7.2160) and offshore yuan (~CNH7.2155). Given the continued pressure on the greenback more broadly, the risk is on the downside. It has not traded below the CNH7.20 mark since last November.
Japan
Drivers: Often the changes in the yen’s exchange rate are more correlated with changes in the US 10-year Treasury yield than the differential with Japan. However, now the differential is slightly more correlated over the past 30 sessions (~0.59 vs 0.56). The changes in dollar-yen have also become more correlated with the Dollar Index. The rolling 30-day correlation had fallen to around 0.20 in mid-February, the lowest since June 2022, but is now near 0.40, a little lower still from where it ended last year.
Meanwhile, the swaps market has almost a 75% chance of the next BOJ rate hike in July, but it is not fully discounted until October. The July meeting (July 31) takes place a few days after the upper house election for half of the 248 seats (July 27). At the end of last week, Prime Minister Ishida admitted to distributing gift vouchers to members of the Diet. This appears to have further weakened his hand as he leads the first minority government.
Data: Japan is set to report February’s trade balance. Without fail, for the past 20 years, it has improved sequentially over the course of January. The January deficit was a blow out of nearly JPY2.74 trillion, the largest since August 2022, which itself was the largest since January 2014.
The February CPI is due, but the signal has already come from the Tokyo CPI, which was released at the end of February. As government subsidies for household energy were renewed, headline inflation is likely to fall from 4.0% in January to around 3.6% in February. The core measure dipped below 3% from 3.2%. The measure, which excludes fresh food and energy, may be broadly stable at around 2.5%.
The Bank of Japan meeting concludes on March 19. While standing pat, Governor Ueda is likely to reiterate that if the economy performs as expected, it anticipates it will be able to raise rates further. The overnight target is at 0.50%, and the swaps market sees a peak near 1.20%.
Prices: After recording the low early last week (~JPY146.55), the dollar recovered to about JPY149.20 in the middle of the week. It consolidated in a JPY141.40-JPY149.00 range for the most part in the past two sessions. The greenback traded firmly and posted its highest close in seven sessions.
The 20-day moving average is near the JPY149.30 level, and the dollar has not settled above it in two months. From its high on Jan. 10 (~JPY158.85) to last week’s low, the dollar has fallen by about 7.75%. The momentum indicators are over-extended, as one would imagine, and look poised to move higher.
United Kingdom
Drivers: Sterling is benefiting from the broad decline in the US dollar. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes can be seen in the Dollar Index, and sterling is near 0.75 compared with less than 0.50 around the middle of February. Growth impulses are faint.
The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in January, though exceptionally poor weather seems to have taken a toll as it did in the US. The UK two-year premium over the US reached a four-month high earlier this month at a little more than 25 bp, but it looks poised to narrow. As recently as mid-February, the US offered a 15 bp premium over the UK.
Data: Although there is a high-frequency economic report nearly every day in the week ahead, the labor market report on March 20 stands out. Elevated wage growth seemed to deter MPC members from backing Mann’s vote for a 50 bp cut in February. The Bank of England meets several hours after the labor market report. Here, too, there is practically no chance of a back-to-back rate cut. The swaps market has about an 80% chance of a cut in May. Between now and the end of the year, the market has discounted two cuts fully, and about 20% of a third.
Prices: Sterling proved itself to be resilient last week. It barely reacted to the unexpected contraction in January’s GDP, which was reported before the weekend. As it did on Thursday and Friday, it has remained within Wednesday’s range (~$1.2915-$1.2990).
The momentum indicators are stretched from the 7.3% rally seen over the past two months. They do not rule out marginal new highs, and the next area of resistance is seen in the $1.3000-$1.3050 range, but the move is long in the tooth. It may take a break of the $1.2860 area, last week’s low, to confirm a top is in place, but we suspect a close below the $1.2900 level would be a preliminary indication of it.
Canada
Drivers: Canada has a new prime minister, and the Bank of Canada reacted to the downside risks posed by the US tariffs and threats by cutting rates again. As one of his last acts as prime minister, Trudeau announced a CAD6.5 billion (~$4.5 billion) program to support businesses that will be hurt by US tariffs, including exporters and agribusiness.
We did not expect this fiscal support by the outgoing minority government. Still, there seems to be ample fiscal space as the budget deficit was projected by the OECD to fall to 1.3% this year from 2.0% in 2024. Still, despite the US flip-flops, Canada remains vulnerable to more tariffs in the coming weeks.
Data: The week begins with January’s portfolio flow report. In 2024, foreign investors bought a net average of CAD16 billion a month of Canadian bonds and stocks. This is the most seen in three years. The Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index rose by 3.25% in January, and the 10-year yield fell by 16 bp.
However, it is the February CPI to which the market may be the most sensitive. Canadian CPI has fallen for the last six months. The subdued price pressure gives the central bank latitude to respond to economic shocks. The swaps market has another cut discounted by July, and more than an 85% chance of a cut later in the year.
At the end of the week, January retail sales will be reported. December’s 2.5% surge was flattered by the temporary sales tax holiday (Dec. 14-Feb. 15). StatsCan warns that January nominal retail sales fell by 0.4%. Still, the economy does appear to be slowing, and the tariffs (real and threatened) are significant headwinds. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for the economy to slow to 1.6% annualized pace in Q1 25, which would be the slowest since Q4 23.
Prices: The Canadian dollar was practically flat last week, which puts it at about 0.12% higher so far here in Q1 25. It remains the poorest-performing G10 currency this year. The price action is choppy, and the lack of visibility saps any lingering conviction.
For the past three months, the greenback has traded in a range of about CAD1.4150-CAD1.4600, with the notable exception being Feb. 3. Most of that seems to have taken place between about the CAD1.4250 and CAD1.4520 levels. Given the outstanding US threats, the trade situation may not see much clarification for several more weeks.
Australia
Drivers: We have noted the increased correlation between the changes in the Australian dollar’s exchange rate and the Canadian dollar. The rolling 30-day correlation is near 0.80, the upper end of where it has been in the past eight months. It is a little more than the inverse correlation with the changes in the Dollar Index. While the Canadian dollar is the worst performer among the G10 currencies this quarter, the Australian dollar is the second worst with a 2.2% gain.
Data: There is one report next week: The February employment data on Thursday. January’s report was robust. Australia filled 54.1,000 full-time posts, the most since last July. In January 2024, full-time employment rose less than 8,000 and in January 2023, it lost nearly 12,000 full-time jobs. Still, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December. Australia’s unemployment rate has been in a 3.9%-4.1% range since last August. Last February, it stood at 3.7%.
Partly, this is a function of the increased participation rate. It was at 66.5% in January 2024 and 67.3% in January 2025. The central bank meets on April 1, and there is practically no chance of a change in the 4.10% target rate.
Prices: The Australian dollar has traded broadly sideways for the past week and a half. It has been confined to about $0.6260 to $0.6360. With better-performing Chinese markets, ostensibly in anticipation of stronger economic activity, and hopes for better US February data, there looks to be scope for Aussie gains. Last month’s high was near the $0.6415 mark, a Fibonacci retracement target. It can be retested, and a break could open the door to another cent gain. That said, a break of the lower end of the range would need to be respected.
Mexico
Drivers: The Mexican peso has appreciated by about 4.5% this year against the dollar, including the gains ahead of the weekend that carried it to its best level in four months. This is a considerably stronger performance than that of the Canadian dollar, but Mexico does not appear to be in Washington’s crosshairs like Canada is. Mexico’s high overnight interest rates (9.50% vs. Canada’s 2.75%) make speculative sales more expensive.
Despite President Sheinbaum’s strong support ratings, the economy is slowing, and the central bank is expected to cut rates by another 50 bp when it meets on March 27. The peso remains vulnerable to US tariff threats, but the spike in early March (~MXN21.00) was less than the spike seen in February (~MXN21.2930). Given the on-again, off-again nature of the US tariffs, it may encourage more opportunistic tactics by market participants. US Customs officials reported that January fentanyl shipments seized on the US-Mexico border fell by 40% in February (month-over-month) to the lowest since December 2021.
Data: Mexico’s economic calendar is light on market moving reports. Ahead of the central bank meeting, it will have the first half of March CPI in hand, January IGAE, which is similar to a monthly GDP estimate, January retail sales, and February’s trade figures.
Prices: The dollar traded below the MXN19.85 level before the weekend. It has not been lower since last Nov. 8, three days after the US election and a day after the FOMC cut rates. The November low was near the MXN19.75 mark. The 200-day moving average is around the MXN19.6830 level, and the dollar has not closed below it in nine months.
The momentum indicators are over-extended, and the greenback settled below its lower Bollinger Band (~MXN20.0160) for the first time since last April. The dollar also settled at new lows for the month against the Brazilian real near the BRL5.7420 level. It fell to BRL5.7120 ahead of the weekend. Last month’s low was closer to the BRL5.6755 area.
The firmer inflation reading earlier in the week underscores the central bank’s commitment to lift the Selic Rate by another 100 bp when it meets on March 19 (to 14.25%). That will be the third consecutive 100 bp increase. The swaps market anticipates two more half-point increases this year.
