Geopolitics; “The big elephant in the mining room”.
Can you start by sharing your professional background in the mining and investment space?
I started as an exploration geologist and then worked with two of Canada’s major banks as a mining investment banker, with a focus on financing the development of major mining projects in Canada and internationally. I then spent several years in western China (in Xinjiang: Altai and Tian Shan regions) as CEO of an exploration company, exploring for gold and copper. That company was subsequently sold to another stock exchange listed company.
Along the way, I have been the Co-chair and Co-founder of the globally recognized Canadian Mining Valuation Standards and currently represent Canada as the Chair of the International Mining Valuation Standards. For the past few years, I have been the CEO and partner of Global Mining Capital, which is focused on private equity (PE) investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A); in partnership with Asian investors, in international jurisdictions such as Latin America, Africa, Central Asia, and South East Asia. I think we are one of the only few PE and M&A boutiques globally with a specific focus on mining projects in these emerging markets. On the mineral and metals side, we like gold, copper, battery minerals, rare earths, uranium, and most critical minerals. Our targets are large, late-stage development, near production, and shovel-ready projects; preferably after the pre-feasibility stage.
You’re part of the board for PDAC, which just ran last month in Toronto. Can you talk about some of the key trends or themes that you saw emerging from discussions there?
This year’s PDAC was filled with infectious optimism, despite the continued difficult funding situation for junior exploration companies. However it is important to note that financings were generally up during Q1 2025. There were over 27,000 attendees from more than 100 countries (including Canada). One of the things we saw was a big increase of the number and type of foreign country pavilions, with several European countries that historically did not have a large presence at PDAC, or for that matter much of an interest in the mining industry per se. This is due to the effects of geopolitics on mineral supply chains, which is now a major focus in the European Union (EU). Additionally, there were several mining ministers and government officials from various major developed countries, in addition to the usual mining cohorts from emerging markets countries.
The discussion themes that dominated included the gradual shift in the perception and image of the mining industry (towards positive), the rise of the gold price, the importance of copper and its supply dynamics, geopolitics of critical minerals, and the creeping consolidation of the industry via mergers & acquisitions. These topics were in addition to the usual annual discussions on sustainability and indigenous issues.
Geopolitics are having major impacts on the metals and mining and investment industries today, and we saw the new tariffs coming out of the Trump administration during PDAC this year. What are some of the biggest implications and impacts of geopolitics on the industry now?
Incidentally, over the years, I have had a strong research interest in geopolitics and how it affects the mining space. Just to stress a point, “geopolitics” relates to the interaction between and among countries and its positive or negative implications, as opposed to “country risk” which has historically affected mining investors, in areas such as expropriation, creeping expropriation, in-country taxation policies, and military coups.
Geopolitics is the big elephant in the mining room and the demand for critical minerals has forced several countries to become more nationalistic and form regional blocks. Furthermore, localization and re-shoring are amplifying the effects of geopolitics. The Trump Administration has been in negotiations with Ukraine (and recently the DRC-Congo) to exchange security arrangements for resources of rareearths, certain specialty minerals, and copper; as it seeks to have control of long-term predictable sources of these critical minerals.
The Trump Administration is not only aggressively supporting the energy sector (“drill baby drill”), but is also very supportive of the mining industry. Recently the Trump Administration has also announced that both coal and gold have been added to its critical minerals list. This is good news for the struggling junior gold exploration sector. Geopolitical tensions have pushed various countries’ central banks to add to their existing stockpiles of gold. The flight from US Treasuries, due to the effects of impending tariffs on the financial markets, as well as de-dollarization, is accelerating this trend towards gold. Countries like China, Russia, Turkey, India, and the UAE have been heavily accumulating the precious metal.
It’s important to note that the slowing energy transition (under the Trump Administration) and the consequent nearterm decrease in demand for critical minerals like lithium has been replaced by an up-tick in gold and copper prices. The big story in geopolitics used to focus on US/ China relations. Is this still a major influence on the metals and mining industry today?
Yes, the big story and in fact the dominant story in geopolitics continues to be the China story. Now it’s further accentuated by US/China relations. Chinese companies have been avoiding any acquisitions, or stock listings in the US over the past few years. Despite efforts in the US, Canada and the EU, China is still the major processor of most critical minerals globally. It is estimated that China processes more than 85% of the world’s rare earths, between 50% and 60% of the world’s lithium, and refines over 90% of the world’s graphite for EV batteries, as well as 87% of 20 of the key critical minerals.
I have spent more than a decade doing business in and with China; and have seen China move from an investee country (where Canadian and Australian companies invested heavily in China) to an investor country (where China became the investor in these same countries, as well as in emerging markets). That era of China being an investor in Canada has basically ended. This means that the available “pot” of funding and financing that was previously available for junior Canadian companies, has been basically cut in half. I would argue that this is one of the key reasons why the junior exploration market continues to be starved for funding.
Let’s look at the regional investment environment in Canada at the moment. Where do you see investment currently focused? Are there any exciting emerging opportunities?
The Trump tariff threat will have some tremendous benefits for the mining industry in Canada. After going through the five stages of grief (and shock), Canada has now reached the point of “acceptance”. In fact, the Trump tariff threat is a blessing in disguise. The mining sector will be one of the key beneficiaries. Interprovincial trade barriers are likely to diminish as the country looks East-West, instead of North-South to the US. Differing provincial regulations and hindrances will be reduced. This means that geologists and mining professionals will have less restrictions and more mobility to easily work in another province. Politicians of all stripes have indicated that they will speed up the permitting process for developing mines. This means that it will not take 15 to 20 years to get a mine to production. Also there will be more public-private partnerships (PPP) for associated mine infrastructure (roads, ports, power) as Canada seeks to become more self-reliant.
Finally, the image of mining will increase among the general Canadian public, as they acknowledge that the new “Canada Strong” slogan can only be realized if the country develops its natural resources, which is its natural competitive advantage.
Finally, what are some key trends that you think will drive the industry in the coming year?
The key trends for the coming year include the continued rise of gold prices, the geopolitics of critical minerals, the importance of copper and its supply dynamics, tariffs and consolidation of the industry via mergers and acquisitions.
Keith Spence is CEO and Partner of Global Mining Capital. The company is engaged in Private Equity Investments and M&A globally. The company has extensive funding relationships with its partners in Asia.
A field geologist; he held positions in Capital Markets and Investment Banking at RBC Capital Markets, Scotia Bank, and BMO Capital Markets. He is a member of the Board of PDAC and has been a member of the Board of the Canadian Institute of Mining & Metallurgy (CIM). He was CEO of Alliance Pacific Resources, which explored for gold and base metals in western China.
Mr. Spence is Co-Founder and Co-Chair of the “world recognised” Canadian Mining Valuation Standards and Guidelines for mining projects; which is referenced by the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX-V), the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Singapore Stock Exchange. He has spoken at numerous international mining conferences, has been quoted in several leading press and media, and has written extensively on China’s international mining investments.
He received the CIM Distinguished Lecturer Award, the SME Mineral Economics Award (USA), the PDAC Distinguished Award, Robert Elver Mineral Economics Award for outstanding contributions to Canadian mineral economics and received the Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee Medal Award, for contributions to Canada. A Commonwealth Scholar; he is a graduate of the Global Management program at Harvard University, has an Honors B.Sc. in Geology and an MBA both from Western University.