Author: TSX Stocks

Tech stocks will underperform the TSX Composite

In similar fashion to our Canada versus U.S.A. bet explained above, the TSX Composite did not beat tech stocks, if we define tech stocks as the Nasdaq 100 (the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq stock exchange). That said, since early July, the Nasdaq is up about 6.5%, while the TSX Composite is up 15% over the same period.

Canadian GDP per capita would continue to fall

Unfortunately, we hit this one on the head. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell throughout 2024. We’ve now suffered six consecutive quarters of falling GDP per capita. Since 2014, Canada hold 27th out of 30 advanced economies when it comes to GDP per capita growth.

Once adjusting for immigration, the Canadian economy has essentially been stuck in neutral for 10 years now. Here’s a look at the divergence of our economy versus that of our largest trading partner.

This is what the future will look like if current productivity trends persist:

Flatlining GDP numbers continued to generate more talk of “Is it a recession or not?” 

Yup, we’re still talking about a recession. Just a couple of weeks ago, former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, “I would say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a technical one. A technical one is a superficial definition that you have two quarters of negative growth in a row, and we haven’t had that, but the reason is because we’ve been swamped with new immigrants who buy the basics in life, and that boosts our consumption enough.”

Oil prices stayed below USD$85 per barrel 

While we were right on this one, it might appear to be obvious in hindsight. It can be easy to forget just how bullish some investors were about oil 12 months ago. In late December 2023, Barclays predicted the WTI price would average USD$93, and Bank of America predicted USD$90. We’re available if either of those two institutions would like to us lead their fossil fuels analyst teams.

Crypto might be volatile, but finished 2024 up 50% (plus)

Bullseye! As you’re going to learn as you continue to read, we didn’t get everything right this year. We certainly couldn’t have forecasted a presidential candidate would buy a major stake in a cryptocurrency firm, then go from saying bitcoin was a “scam” to taking about a quarter-billion dollars from the crypto industry and becoming its biggest promoter.

Bitcoin did fall more than 25% from March to August in 2024, before the current rally fuelled by president-elect Donald Trump. That event now has bitcoin up 125% year-to-date. Despite predicting the BTC rally, we remain just as skeptical as we were a year ago. To make it into my portfolio an investment must have profits and/or cash flow, and BTC has neither.

Paladin Energy will debut on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) at 9:30am local time on December 27, under the ticker symbol “PDN,” the company said Friday, as its ASX-listed shares jumped almost 3.5%. 

The uranium company remains primarily listed on the ASX, with its dual-listing following the acquisition of Fission Uranium, as Paladin taps new opportunities in high-quality uranium exploration and development across Canada. 

“We are delighted to reach this milestone with our shares now trading on the TSX, and we welcome Fission shareholders to Paladin. We are truly excited by the opportunities ahead,” Paladin Energy chief executive Ian Purdy said. 

“The combination of Paladin and Fission creates a world-class diverse uranium producer operating in multiple countries, with a high-quality portfolio of production, development and exploration assets.”  

The Perth-based company completed its acquisition of Fission Uranium on Christmas eve, in a strategic bid to strengthen its global position in the uranium sector and expand its operations into North America. 

The deal provides Paladin full control of the Patterson Lake South project, which is seen as one of the most advanced and promising uranium exploration projects globally. 

The move gives Fission shareholders around 24% of Paladin’s outstanding shares, increasing Paladin’s asset base and boosting its market capitalisation. 

Paladin plans to integrate Fission’s management into its operations, with a focus on optimising and advancing the Patterson Lake South project, despite Fission’s CEO Ross McElroy resigning following the deal. 

Paladin shares tanked in November after the company announced cuts to production and revised its fiscal 2025 production guidance for its Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia, marking the worst trading performance in seven years.

Uranium prices consolidated during 2024, but analysts are still predicting a rebound for the energy fuel with supply constraints and increasing demand ahead. 

After hitting a 17-year high in February, the uranium spot price fell before stabilising for the remainder of 2024. Uranium ended the year around US$73.75 per pound, lower than its previous highs, but still above historical levels. 

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) shares were trading up 3.25% at $7.80 at the time of writing and has a market capitalisation of A$2.34 billion.